78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
78Blizzard replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Be sure to include your backyard in those precip type issues... -
Just opining on what the model showed as others have been doing since this thread started.
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Verbatim Sat PM that would be 3-4"/hr rates in Westerly.
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Exactly. We've seen the GFS blow day 6 runs all winter, and now they even blew a day 1 run. And I'm not just referring to the clown maps either.
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We have often said that we need to nowcast certain systems. IMO this will be an epic nowcast system, especially with the tight gradient. Plenty of bust potential, up or down.
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Yet the 18z GEFS has 14" for BOS and 5" here. This stuff is laughable.
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About the same here.
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Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles. The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.
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Check again, the 18z had 1.99.
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GFS cut back QPF here by almost 1/3 from 18z.
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It did, but looks like the end result was about the same for most.
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Hrrr not a good sign for the 0z suite.
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The problem for the GFS is that it can only be downhill for it after that last run. It won't get any better than that for many. It has been steadfast for 3 days now, so I think changes should be mostly noise this close in. I have railed on it this winter for showing us favorable outcomes at day 6 that disappeared by go time. But if it does it now at day 1-2, then what good is it?
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Plenty of bust potential in that BOX map. Just let the NAM's next run trend toward the GFS and they'll be scrambling to update.
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Yeah, just about 2" here, with the sleet line barely getting to me and then collapsing into heavy snow.
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Basically, they are saying FU to the GFS.
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Well, we have a stubborn NAM and a stubborn GFS. At this point I don't see either/both of them compromising. The GFS has been consistent every run for days, so I am inclined to go with it. I see BOX isn't putting up any warnings yet, so they can't be buying the GFS or even much of the other guidance.
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NAM @ hr 30 looks colder this run.
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Imagine what this place will look like during the next 4 or 5 model runs as we put every tick north or south under the microscope?
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Is that the same Canadian that just yesterday had over 20" in many areas of SNE, including my backyard?
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The 3k NAM looks much better than it did at 18z, but I'm not biting after that 10" it showed here on the last system.
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Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map. Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE. Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage.
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I knew when I moved the snowblower into position in the garage last night what the end result would be here today.
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I'll bet the Euro caves to the 12z CMC at 0z...
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
78Blizzard replied to George001's topic in New England
GFS coming in warmer @ hr 108.
