78Blizzard

CMC more robust, especially for New London area. Better for BOS area, too.

Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance. “Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message. Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48. As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.” The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.

5" per hr rates for 6 hours, lol. Next run will be a rainer or nothing for se MA. Why even bother with anything beyond 240 hours?

Let's add the Tonga January 2022 volcano eruption to the theories for this weird pattern. The volcano was found to have injected an immense plume of water vapor (including ice) and ash into the Earth’s stratosphere and into the mesosphere, about 35 miles high. We don't yet know the ongoing impact on the global climate from this big eruption. It did take place in the southern hemisphere so the effects on the northern hemisphere's climate would probably be delayed. Anomalous cold and snow spilled into Australia and South America during the winter season that recently ended, with many records being shattered. Just saying...

One post here in the last 2-3 hours tells you all you need to know. Also, 4 (soon to be 3) members posting.

The one positive about this prolonged pattern is that most of us should be pleased that our heating bills won't be off the charts. Sorry fellow snow lovers.

That looked to be quite fleeting. Didn't do anything good after that depiction.

?

5 days ago this 8-day snapshot was being ridiculed because it conflicted with what many were saying or thinking would be a pattern flip a couple of days or so later. Well, we are now 3 days out from this snapshot and the pattern does not appear to be changing after 12/6. Perhaps some of the reactions could be of the kinder, gentler variety. As we have seen, no one here has a lock on when the next pattern change takes place. Just saying...

NO. Usually when it's cold in the west it's warm in the east. We usually want to the see the ridge out west for it to be possibly good here.

I wonder if someone hacked into the models to make them think this was still November, lol. Because this period of warmth and rainer after rainer sure seems like November.

It gets worse after that. The temps never get as low as the 30's let alone below freezing in BOS until mid month according to the latest GFS. That is, after Monday.

First we have to go through 3+ days next week with temps stuck in the 50's all day and all night. Then the cold blast hits. The secondary on the 12th looks to slip to our south.

Yeah, we're a couple of post WWII babies. My father had returned from the Pacific aboard a destroyer that took part in the last battle at Okinawa, got married, and the rest is history.

Happy birthday young man. My 76th is 5 weeks from today.

Then worry turns to .

Well, at least the heating bills won't be staggering this month.

What a change from 12z on the 18z GFS, lol. Let's see if the GEFS follows suit.

It seems that we question the credibility of posting an 8 day op, yet some here think nothing of posting a 21-28 day weekly as though there is some sort of credibility in that, especially how those have been lately.

But they keep telling us climo is changing...

18z GFS and GEFS says it's going to be boring weather for the next 2+ weeks, with no cold outbreaks and no or little snow for most of us.

Looks like the 18z GFS has a torch for SNE to end the month thru the first several days of December.

Actually, the Ukie was the one leading the way yesterday that it would be a dud.

That's more than we get around these parts here in most winters.

Be funny if the 12z Ukie proved correct and everyone was looking up at cirrus.