78Blizzard

We've seen a lot of both of those scenarios in the last few years, but if push comes to shove I'll go with the chasing convection east.

Those Weather Bell maps are underdone. If you compute the total GEFS qpf for the storm it becomes obvious, especially in areas that stay in the 20's throughout the storm. That area NW of Worcester to S NH shows 6.6-6.7 in their snow map, yet total qpf shows an average around 1.25". Temps there are in the low to mid 20's, and the upper levels are all quite cold. I used the Pivotal maps for the qpf and temps, but their maps have the snowfall totals underdone as well on the GEFS.

Those two members out near Bermuda are keeping this mean over the benchmark instead of a hugger at best.

If that's all we end up with, I'll take it at this point vs the previous alternative.

You could see big changes at h5 from 12z. The earlier run had a ridge running from the central plains all the way up into southern Canada. Not there this time.

Seems like big changes thus far at h5 on the GFS from 12z.

It all depends on how you define "big events". For SNE rainers they apply frequently.

Calm down. Just trying to spread a little levity here...

We won't hold you to it.

The way I see it is that winters are reverting back to the mean where NNE is going to be making up for those great years for SNE. Not that SNE will be shut out, but NNE will do better as climo says they should.

Again, if the GFS is right, RIC will be sucking exhaust, too. You might have to hope for a HSE jack.

Even the Mid Atlantic won't take advantage of our misses if the GFS is right.

Yeah, 4 storms after this weekend's system suppressed to our south. You know that will verify.

So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events". We used to call them … wait for it … storms. We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

All the colder air lifts out after Wednesday, and a sheared out system isn't going to bring it back.

Last night it was a GFS OP run 8 days away, yet that's different. A week ago people were railing against the posting of an 8 day op that didn't fit the pattern narrative here. Can't have it both ways.

As Tip said earlier, "should this freak pattern look go on to verify, there will be no question as to which model was superior in detection."

That's 2 GFS runs in a row saying what storm. You can loop the last 5 GFS runs and see the gradual progression south with each run. What was a big hit for NNE on last night's 18z slowly disintegrated to the south with each successive run. This had better start turning around tonight or tomorrow.

CMC more robust, especially for New London area. Better for BOS area, too.

Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance. “Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in a text message. Cohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48. As for the chances for significant snow in the eastern United States, Cohen said that “the payoff usually comes at the end of the pattern.” He added, “The best chance for a big snowfall is when the NAO is transitioning from negative to positive.” The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.

5" per hr rates for 6 hours, lol. Next run will be a rainer or nothing for se MA. Why even bother with anything beyond 240 hours?

Let's add the Tonga January 2022 volcano eruption to the theories for this weird pattern. The volcano was found to have injected an immense plume of water vapor (including ice) and ash into the Earth’s stratosphere and into the mesosphere, about 35 miles high. We don't yet know the ongoing impact on the global climate from this big eruption. It did take place in the southern hemisphere so the effects on the northern hemisphere's climate would probably be delayed. Anomalous cold and snow spilled into Australia and South America during the winter season that recently ended, with many records being shattered. Just saying...

One post here in the last 2-3 hours tells you all you need to know. Also, 4 (soon to be 3) members posting.

The one positive about this prolonged pattern is that most of us should be pleased that our heating bills won't be off the charts. Sorry fellow snow lovers.