78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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According to the Euro over the next 10 days we can look forward to a parade of "potential" heading straight east well to our south as fish storms.
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Someone coming to this site for the first time and paging through this thread must be thinking "what a bunch of whiners".
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With the GFS showing Montreal hitting an all-time low of -40F next Friday, it's no surprise we will be less active with that cold pushing down, even if it turns out to be fleeting. Montreal's all-time low is -29F.
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The models are laughing at us all...
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Let's be real here. The 18z GFS, too, shows yes, a couple of days of BN 2m temp anomalies, but then goes right back to well AN anomalies for rest of the run. Those subzero temp runs of a few days ago are but a fantasy now.
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I'm at the point I don't want to look at any models. If by some miracle we get something worthwhile, I'll enjoy it when and while it happens.
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Do you want to go back and look at all the snow maps posted from the Euro and the EPS?
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My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day. The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out. We've seen that countless times this winter. Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE.
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The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE. A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow. Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps. Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours. It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now.
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I'm going with a NAM/RAP combo for 4-5" here.
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At least we finally might get some real systems to track instead of these teasers. That Koochie with 41" here would take care of the snow drought, but I've seen this movie too many times to get all excited at this point. We've seen the GFS track record of 9+day scenarios.
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I wasn't talking about your backyard in CNE. -
When the track goes west of the benchmark, it usually isn't good for much of SNE without decent cold locked in at all levels.
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We started the January thread on December 18. Perhaps its time we started the February thread and we can put these conversations where they belong.
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I doubt this will happen here in the next 2 hours as depicted by the 0z GFS.
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Just a few hours ago the CMC snow maps were subject to ridicule. But now that the Euro shows it, too, we can't post enough snow maps. I'm with Jerry. It's a 9-day run. Let's see how it looks again in 3 days.
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Ukie a bit more robust and extended further west.
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Looks like the GFS may finally be getting a clue, now that we are in its 24-36 hr wheelhouse, lol.
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RGEM went the opposite of the NAM - much more robust at 18z than at 12z.
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Setting up another battle between the Euro and GFS.
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FV3 is all alone with this scenario: But we'll take it.
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He also said this right after that: "Wasn't that long ago many were wishcasting this warmth away because the MJO was going to be in phase 8 during early-mid Jan. There isn't a significant signal for Eastern US cold w/ phase 8 MJO, but there's a good/significant chance for warmth if the MJO reaches phase 4-6 in Feb" One of the mets here was pushing that phase 8 last week.
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Given the weeklies track record thus far, I wouldn't put my hopes on them to save this winter. We need extraordinary changes, not just big changes. Big changes have a way of disappearing as we saw in December.
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I'm ready to move on to the February discussion...
