SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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A little disjointed with the double low but I'll take it at this range
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Imo that's more significant than an op run Op runs will waver a lot. We want ensembles to stay the course
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Lots of potential in that time frame. Big PNA spike and west based NAO along with another big -AO dip
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GEFS show multiple threats
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Shades of Feb 1978 perhaps
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That's also where the melts come in. Because if not every run shows a blockbuster people panic And when people track for 9-10 days they lose it
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It helps that the AO may go even lower than we've seen this week. Double lows below -4 in December?
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Things wouldn't have to change too much for a more favorable outcome. A stronger PNA spike or a stronger 50/50 due to better Atlantic blocking could do the trick. I would prefer a better PNA
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Quite the storm potential next week. Will it be a dynamic arctic front or a Miller B is the question. Regardless a massive chunk of arctic air will be unleashed for Christmas
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I think this year could end up like 12-13 vs 01-02
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We're too far gone to see those again or 13/14 & 14/15
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GFS looking a lot better tonight. Has a solid PNA ridge Would be nice if Euro trended that way
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A +PNA is still more important than the NAO/AO because it allows cold air to funnel eastward particularly in December. With a -PNA you can get the Euro op
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Those cold anomalies are off the charts in the western half. Part of me would like to see the Euro play out. That's historic cold for a lot of places out west
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If Euro is right then December is done but we are talking about a Day 9-10 op run
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Euro is a disaster for us but very plausible in a well coupled Nina. I don't think there's anything more important than a +PNA in 1st half of winter if you want snow. No amount of Atlantic blocking will supercede it
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Maybe even down to LA. That's historic cold out west
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Euro is even better. Massive SE ridge as cold dumps west This is what blocking buys you according to Euro op
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I think that's the period to watch. Another AO drop and PNA goes up. I could care less what a day 10 ops run shows. If it showed a blizzard people would say it's wrong.
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I think the Pacific will always be a problem this year but I also think the Atlantic blocking will stick around. Usually bouts of -4 AOs in December have blocking later on as well. So Jan-March will prob be the best timeframe for us to get a big snow event because we don't need an amazing Pacific.
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He's probably going to be right. The blocking forecast is in rarified territory and even moreso if we dip below 5 which is possible. Things will be more clear after we get Friday's system out of the way
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Ensembles looked pretty good to me. It can take time for snows to show after the big AO drop. The lag time ranges from a week to over a month. In 2010 we had to wait til after Christmas for our big storm.
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It's closer to a SWFE/Miller B than a cutter. At least northern parts of the area still have a shot at snow.
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Idk if that will hold. Models have had a tendency to dump the trough out west first, a common Nina theme. They're doing that after the Friday storm now when they had ridging out west in earlier runs.
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Some take it under 5. Now that's extremely rare territory if it happens. It would be shocking if this pattern didn't eventually produce
