SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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That's a wild temperature drop. I wouldn't be surprised if the starting point was a little higher (upper 50s). Warm sectors can really overperform in temps. A 40F drop looks likely for many with some seeing 45+ drops over a 12-18hr period.
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Nam also has some pretty hefty totals (3+) just further west They also suggest single digits are very possible just outside the city.
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960s in the lakes is not run of the mill
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Pretty impressive cold for Xmas weekend. If we had snow cover it'd likely be in the single digits
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Time to close the shades for a couple weeks after Christmas Hopefully it's not like 1989 otherwise game over for winter
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GFS almost looks like it wants to pop a secondary near the coast.
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Expectations are very low but if the PNA doesn't break down then chances for something go up.
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And you jinxed it
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Don't get your hopes up. I'm quietly looking at it and that's it. I fully expect failure
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To be fair the Euro/CMC only had a couple runs with a good solution. The rest were pretty crappy.
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There is one thing I'll be quietly monitoring. A piece of energy will be coming south after Christmas enhanced by the PNA ridge. Models aren't doing much with it now but we'll see if anything happens. Reason it's interesting is because usually there's a storm before there's a big change in the pattern. And I wonder if models are breaking down the ridge out west too quickly
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The silver lining is at least it'll feel like Christmas. Temps for the 24-25th will be coldest we've seen in years.
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I don't think it's gonna be that bad. Maybe it will be. I'll enjoy the mild weather if it's not gonna snow
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The storm is slamming into a strong high to our NE so an inland secondary low is probably likely. That will really enhance the pressure gradient leading to a period of strong to severe wind gusts. Just not sure exactly where it'll form
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Interestingly enough the CMC has some of the flash freeze elements the GFS has. It goes from upper 50s to upper 20s over a 6hr period. Flash freezes are very rare but so is this system. If you just like interesting weather then Friday could be fun.
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Now that's an Arctic front. Less secondary this time so winds are lower.
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That ridge near New England is no good.
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Euro shows it too but I think they'll both back off as we get closer.
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Watch it be the one time it verifies just to add to the misery
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I highly doubt we'll see that. Winds rarely get as strong as forecast. Usually models tone it down as we get closer. 40-50mph is more probable Some places could get near 60 though if the warm sector really over performs
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06z GFS looked even worse for gusts than Euro but I'm not sure
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This mornings GFS is a flash freeze with 60+ gusts possible Temps crash from near 60 to teens in 6-12 hrs
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You're a troll Temps crash from 60 to teens in 18hrs. That's a massive pressure gradient
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I see. Sounds like more bad luck then. I gotta check raindancewx again. He might be on the money again though I'm pretty sure he had a warm December
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I thought you said that wasn't a factor for your region.
