SnoSki14

People wonder how we went nearly a decade without major snows in the 80s or had multiple low years in the late 90s Well that's how. But we also have to deal with the effects of CC on our patterns today. One of those big effects is the southbound Greenland ridging and ridging off the Atlantic coast. It's going to be harder and harder to deliver a good snow season here. On the plus side, if and when things do come together you could get a massive storm. There will be a storm that drops 3-5' of snow over our area over the next 10-15 years or before the warming becomes too much.

Here's why it'll keep moving west. Look at those anomalies off of New England. That's reinforcing the ridging there

If that continues then futility records are in play. Feb looks warm too on weeklies. Only thing that could muck it up is some March storm. Getting 0 snow is probably a long shot though but fingers crossed

No threats for us whatsoever. No 50/50s in place. Every system should cut well west A great stretch though for C/N NE and the ski regions up north. Even parts of SNE might do well

I really hope it's not another cold/snowy March. I can't stand snow/cold in late winter. The only exception I'll make is a crazy storm like 1888

Yeah that's what I'm counting on

We should easily beat the snow drought record.

Congrats, no one south of 41N is getting anything this winter. My biggest storm was a brief squall back in December

They average like 200-300+ inches I would hope they'd get snow

Most of our seasonal snowfall comes after mid Jan

That might work out in late winter when wavelengths start to change I think Feb will be better than people expect

If there's a Nino influence then spring may be quite pleasant

There's definitely a change in the air although it may not seem like it. Pretty stout PNA spike is shown too. Getting into good climo territory as well. 22/23 looks interesting and maybe something beyond as well

Euro loves over amplifying systems too.

It's probably gonna snow at some point. As much as I would personally like to see futility records broken I don't see that happening. You had a double dip -4 AO in December, the PV is getting stretched beyond belief. At some point it's gonna snow. Hell it could pull a 2016 and dump one big blizzard on us.

I'm getting strong 12/13 vibes.

I think our best bet for snow is through SWFEs. You need the shortwaves to stay weak though. Even in bad patterns it can still find a way to snow and we're approaching our most favorable climo period for snow.

The late weekend system + the early week shortwave create some confluence for the following one. Best case is some sort of SWFE which will benefit northern areas.

Yeah there's enough time for it to do so

It definitely feels like a late 90s winter.

Really? Then that's the most pathetic +PNA I've ever seen.

Does the GEFS show a partial SSW event. It really stretches that PV.

If you like OP runs then Euro was a lot more promising than the GFS. It shows a PNA spike. CMC is somewhere in the middle Nice thing about the GEFS is that it restocks the cold supply over north america. That can really help if the SE ridge becomes a problem.

Don't you think it's a bit naive to assume any of that will play out given it's 10-14+ days out at the minimum. What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change. Ssts are off the charts too off the New England & Atlantic coast further enhancing that probability Also what are the odds we rat the rest of the way and NYC sees 0 snow for the first time in recorded history.

This is arguably the best model run of the season for eastern SNE within the 3-day time frame.