SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I see this year as a late bloomer. Late September through October could be very active with a rather late onset of Nina conditions.
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Phoenix Records its Hottest Summer on Record
SnoSki14 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Also if we are back to the 30s-50s does that mean the Arctic was as warm and sea ice as low back then as it is now? -
Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now.
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Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot.
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Phoenix Records its Hottest Summer on Record
SnoSki14 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Humans developed nuclear weapons that could literally destroy the atmosphere. We're responsible for mass ecological extinctions. You have to be a complete fool to think humans can't overpower natural forces but please stay ignorant. -
I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.
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There appears to be a high likelihood of a storm targeting the east coast in about 10-14 days. Too early to say if the steering pattern would allow for impacts but the trend this summer has been for increased ridging especially over NE Canada and we've already had 2 systems impact the northeast.
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Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard. Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon.
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We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period. Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US.
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Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states.
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You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts.
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There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
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The tropics will likely flip like a switch. Even now despite unfavorable conditions we're still seeing invests try to spin up. I think we'll get our next storm shortly after the 20th (21-26 most likely). It's possible we get a rogue subtropical or brief MDR storm before then but our first big time storm won't come till late August. We could see simultaneous storms in the 25th through September 15 time frame. A couple of them could be majors. After the 15th there could be another lull but another active period in late September through October is very likely.
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A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year.
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It's a powder keg setup. Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks.
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If it meets the definition of a storm then it gets a name it's that simple. Agree about the winter storm naming nonsense though.
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If it meets the criteria then it should get a name. Dolly definitely met the criteria for a TS.
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May 8-9 mid-spring rain, snow, cold, wind obs
SnoSki14 replied to CT Valley Snowman's topic in New England
That Cranky guy is a total idiot. We had squalls down to central NJ today. -
The 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts don't look too pretty either. So much for a big recovery. RIP to climate change deniers.
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Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.
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These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.
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My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.
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That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.
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Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.
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And the Earth is flat too.
