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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    It's going to be an odd winter. The unusual western anomalies and the big Nina dip are out of sorts. The last couple winters were Ninos with Nina like patterns, I don't know what this winter will yield. I don't even think you can use past analogs anymore. Things are no longer as clear cut as they used to be.
  2. SnoSki14
    Apparently La Nina's with high ACE are favorable for winter (1995, 2010). ETA could eventually push the ACE past 160-165. Also November is not a winter month imo so it could torch all it wants if that means December is good.
  3. SnoSki14
    Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event.
  4. SnoSki14
    Record warm November coming up? Massive long lasting ridge in the east likely with tropics active well into the month.
  5. SnoSki14
    Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.
  6. SnoSki14
    1st half mild with a transition to colder 2nd half looks probable imo.
  7. SnoSki14
    Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.
  8. SnoSki14
    That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.
  9. SnoSki14
    Enjoy the mild winter then.
  10. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't mind another mild snow-free winter. Lower bills, no traffic jams/accidents, no shoveling, no frigid weather. Not a bad ask.
  11. SnoSki14
    Looks nice and warm for the foreseeable future.
  12. SnoSki14
    We're going to roast this winter again.
  13. SnoSki14
    Should be interesting to watch nonetheless. Strong WAR could mean this ends up close to the coast but many days out of course.
  14. SnoSki14
    We're really feeling the AGW effects now. It seems as though 2015/2016 was a tipping point with the mega Nino. I think every winter from this point on will be warm/wet or warm/dry. Snow will be unlikely but not impossible as years like 2016/2017 could still happen. However this year will likely be another 2011/2012 style winter.
  15. SnoSki14
    GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track.
  16. SnoSki14
    I think something like 2016-2017 is possible.
  17. SnoSki14
    So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?
  18. SnoSki14
    Is it odd that I feel better about the coming winter when all the forecasts show a snowless torch winter. It's like playing with house money.
  19. SnoSki14
    To its credit it did spot the phase and curl NW into Canada that models are now catching onto. Hopefully it plays out that way as it will likely generate massive swells just offshore.
  20. SnoSki14
    The GFS was trending synoptically towards the Euro.
  21. SnoSki14
    Most likely a disappointment though hopefully it'll come close enough for some big swells.
  22. SnoSki14
    Euro seems pretty convinced of that cutoff and blocking high. There's also a clear SW trend with the cutoff. I don't think Teddy will get that far west because of how far east it is to begin with but it's an intriguing setup nonetheless.
  23. SnoSki14
    Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north.
  24. SnoSki14
    It's like talking to a brick wall. You could present 1000s of examples and they'll make an excuse for all of them. Don't waste your breath.
  25. SnoSki14
    This sucker is poised to be a major (3rd after Paulette) and I have zero doubt it'll impact the US eventually but all those island interactions will complicate things.
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