SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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S NJ may get some interesting weather or the GFS is still on crack.
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That negative tilt causes the storm to slow down which allows precip to move further north.
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I do see a scenario where the northern extent ends up being 30-50 miles further north. A more energetic southern vortex leading to stronger negative tilt could get snows up to north central NJ. HRRR will be interesting moving forward.
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Well the Nam said that's a wrap and I think it's correct. Models were overdoing the NW ticks and are now pulling back. I expect the GFS to follow. You're relying on the southern vortex to do all the work without a lot of help from the northern stream, which is why the precip field is so tight. Let the Mid-Atlantic take the win here
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Latest Gfs stops the NW trend. I think it'll be difficult to tick further from this point on but we'll see. Could be a very painful radar come Monday morning.
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Nam continues the NW tick. S NJ now gets a good snowstorm. Models are still ticking north so the trend ain't done yet.
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If the past few years are any indication then this system will keep ticking NW till it begins.
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The north ticks continue.
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No monster block so this could keep ticking north. Getting flashbacks of some of those 13-15 storms that trended last minute.
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It's definitely still trending north but is it too late?
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Minor differences lol It does give the GFS legitimacy though even if it still stays south of us.
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That's why I'm not getting my hopes up. But every once in a while even the crappiest model gets something right.
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It's a long shot but these north ticks have continued up until storm day in the past which led to us mixing a lot.
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Either the GFS is a genius or completely insane.
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I'm really not sure what to think. I heard this had shades of Jan 25, 2000 on it. I'm gonna assume the gfs is lost but you never know. Honestly given the warm Atlantic waters and long term trends to tuck the lows in I mean who knows what's possible.
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You know I don't care if it snows in NJ or not. If I wanted snow every winter I would've moved to Vermont or Buffalo. There's more to interesting weather than snow.
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Looks like Virginia is about to get more interesting weather than you guys will.
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Virginia is really about to see more snow than all of the northeast lol
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Arctic cold & dry?
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Virginia is about to get more snow than anyone outside of the mountains in the Northeast saw so far.
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We could use a stronger than forecast SE ridge for this.
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If that Pacific ridge plays out then I have no issues with losing the Atlantic blocking. I'll take a good pacific over Atlantic any day. However it's gonna be a struggle sustaining that with the -PDO. So I think we'll be good through Jan 20 before things turn mild again. Still a long shot that Sunday night works out.
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On the other hand it'd be a really cold month if we lived in Florida.
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In what way exactly. Are you referring to the Hadley cell.
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Basically back and forth pattern. Warm 1-2 days with rain, cold shot for a day or two then more warmth/rain and rinse/repeat. Looks like crap if you're looking for snow.
