SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Everything will sort itself out tomorrow.
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The intricacies of this storm is so detailed and subtle that a slight delay in phasing can mean the difference between the CMC/Ukie vs GFS. The Ukie was heading towards Bermuda yesterday. The 18z Nam was about to join. Normally we'd have more wiggle room via Atlantic blocking. The model craziness does remind me of Boxing day. How that storm came together last minute was a miracle.
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Well he'll either come out looking like a prophet or the warminista troll that he is.
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Gotta love that historic ice storm at day 10
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Ukie has snowier outputs than CMC which means the CMC is likely too low on amounts. Really curious to see what the Euro cooks up. Will it follow some of those intense western members?
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It's an outlier right now. A big one at that. The GFS/GEFS has a progressive bias. It blew chunks on the cutter especially the GEFS.
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That's happened before. Everyone assumed the Euro was going to give an amazing solution only to crap the bed.
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Oh yeah for sure. Ukie is another model that tends to hold out till the end on coastals. Given the developments that the Euro/EPS indicated at 18z, I would be very surprised if they didn't show a CMC like solution at 0z
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Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.
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That looks solid. Mets must be pulling their hair out right now. What a delicate setup.
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Given how perilous the setup is, the progressive bias of the GFS will lead to incredible run to run changes. It's really incredible how slight changes affect the entire outcome. The model volatility must be off the charts this close to the potential storm.
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These are some major shifts over 1 run. I'd be surprised if the GFS isn't better.
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The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI
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Toss both. Nam is completely inconsistent and should not be taken seriously beyond 36hrs here.
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Just goes to show if it phases early, the capture happens and it'll come far west.
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Sorry I guess the models didn't get your memo of a huge blizzard.
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In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff.
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This winter so far is a tale of too many cooks in the kitchen. Too many signals conflicting with one another. Feb will likely lean on the mild side but there's still Arctic shots getting thrown in. I'm still on the late Feb to March train. That's been a common theme. Hopefully we just torch though and get through this headache of a winter.
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It would be pretty funny if after all that tracking the 18z Nam verified.
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Nam is lol worthy. Even SNE gets screwed.
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We're still 2.5 days out so things have room to change. I'm much more optimistic after the 12z suite even if it looked bad overall. I like the trends out west. If they continue then it'll translate downstream eventually.
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A better PNA out west could help big time. Models seem to be trending that way. It could cancel out the dragging of the southern stream and lead to an earlier phase.
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Nice trends out west. Could still lead to a capture scenario but time is running out. I'll give it till tomorrow afternoon
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It looks worse than before and trending towards other models.
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I'm kind of optimistic about this working out somehow after being so negative about it. All it takes is a subtle shift in the southern stream ejection and everything changes. Because of the fast flow these subtleties may not be accurately captured until we're less than 36hrs out.
