Hurricane Agnes
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Everything posted by Hurricane Agnes
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Some messages from Mt. Holly for the CWA -
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WPC agrees with this and has this area highlighted for flash flooding.
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Last night it had weakened to about 996/997 but as of the last report, it was down to 993 so it did strengthen a bit and at least on visible, it seems to be stacking a bit better with the naked swirl tucked under the mid levels a bit better and the shear that was keeping it from moving north has started to shift away, allowing it to pick up some speed. But it looks like some dry air got ingested into the lower level circulation so it's trying to form an eye somehow with that going on. There's a recon in the storm right now that is still finding the 993.
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Both the Ukie and Euro were showing Henri inland due north into east central NY merging with some ULL and then moving due east across the rest of NE. The one down in the Carolinas is already doing a playdate with Henri.
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NHC intermediate Advisory (storm still headed to the NNE @12 mph but has strengthend to 993 mb and does look a bit more stacked on vis) - Almost all the model runs so far (0z & 6z) have shifted back to the east. The ensembles seem a tick east vs the operational but the range is pretty narrow on where the track is going to go, unless it does a "S word" special (left hook) at the last minute.
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NHC 5 am Advisory (has weakened a bit, picked up speed and now moving to the NNE) -
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OMG both the 18z and 0z GFS were showing what appears to be some TC running right into LA right at the end of the runs. Yes I know but.... 0z GFS seems steady but I noticed a trend of a slight swinging out to the east and then recurving back around to the west before doing a landfall. And am seeing that loop-de-loop/stall around SE NY/NE PA before heading back east once on land. Am adding the TC into LA too for posterity.
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0z ICON doing a loop-de-loop around NE PA.
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11 pm Advisory. Cone (with landfall) about the same but possibly a tiny tick west. Speed has picked up a little...
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It's a shame we are 24 hours out from it and the models are all over the place. The shear had been keeping it from moving much but the visible looks like it is trying to stack and it is getting into a more favorable area.
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NAM running... swings out east and then hooks around and hits eastern LI to crush the whole state of CT.
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Yeah, there are/were a couple recons going around and in it, so will see if any new data shifts it either way to start (or continue) a trend.
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NHC 8pm Advisory -
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18z NAM is saying not so fast and starts sending it east again (although it does seem to be picking up what I was seeing on the visible sat wihere the naked lower level swirl of the system seems to be tugging the rest of itself slightly to the east).
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NHC 5 pm Public Advisory (forward motion a little quicker but winds/pressure the same) -
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Sun popped up later this afternoon, although the skies have been variable. The high (so far) has been 82 and it's currently 81 with dp 71.
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With almost all but the GFS going west, will be interesting to see if the GFS caves...
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NHC intermediate advisory -
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I know right? I know when Fred was making landfall, it looked like Henri would be a fish storm, looping around Bermuda and out to sea.
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Seems to be getting closer and closer to the CWA with rain impacts. Ukie, hot off the press.
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Looks like it plowed into N. Jersey a tick further south. I'm gonna go ahead and make a thread...
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Looks like the Ukie 12z is running now. I finally checked over in the NY Metro forum and yeah, they are hot on its tail. Was wondering if we should go ahead and make a separate thread on it just in case.
