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Hurricane Agnes

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  1. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC 5 am FINAL Advisory (now stalled drifting E 1 mph, weakened to 1005 mb, and 30 mph winds) -
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    I think some of the models earlier in the week suggested that it would drift to the west and get cut off from any steering mechanisms (basically sitting and raining all over the place), to the point where a couple mets were even comparing it to what Hurricane Harvey did (down in Texas). It would supposedly eventually get picked up by something and sent east again across NE, and out to sea. Some of the models even had it do a loop-de-loop that took it down into NE PA, and then had it head back up to the northeast, and finally go east out to sea. The behavior we are seeing probably had the most uncertainty with the forecasting because it was dependent on features to the north and the ULL that is south of where we are, that would be determinants on its movements.
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC 8 pm Advisory (now downgraded to a Tropical Depression, winds 35 mph, pressure 1000 mb, but still moving at 7 mph WNW) -
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    My low ended up being 71 this morning, just after 7:30 am and I did finally make it to 80 about 2:45 pm when that dry slot was trying to provide some breaks for the sun to peak through, although it didn't really make it, but the sky didn't brighten briefly. Currently 75 and overcast with dp 73.
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    I've been watching some returns slowly dropping down to your area although it might be virga at this point.
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    When I got my Ambient weather station, I had been reading all sorts of discussions on how people calibrate all sorts of rain gauges and saw pics of those ASOS rain gauges. I think the point of the slats is as a baffle around the funnel to minimize ground level winds and droplet bounce, since the rain can get blown around that could miss the gauge and give readings that are too low. There's a cool little video explanation of it (using NWS's DFW ASOS as an example) -
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    Mt. Holly has a forecast rain band pivot for the CWA overnight and into tomorrow morning, so it's possible, if it verifies, that anyone who missed out the first round, might cash in on a 2nd round (including what looks like a convective line tomorrow morning) -
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    Well if it came out of their ASOS there, it was automated. I know that KNYC (Central Park) has always been made fun of (temperatures and snow measurements) and I always wondered if they normally bypass it and use KJFK for official readings for NYC. I found a pic of the little complex of instruments so it could be a tree issue - https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical I think the funky slatted unit on the left is their rain gauge/ASOS.
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    They broke a record in Central Park last night right when they had (stupidly) went on with that concert there and then had to halt it about halfway through and cancel the rest because of --> WPC actually still has part of SE PA as Marginal for their Day 2 -
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC 5 pm Advisory (weakened to 40 mph sustained, speed slowed to 7 mph and now moving WNW, with pressure up to 997 mb) -
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC's 2 pm update (storm down to 50 mph sustained, has slowed to 9 mph, moving NW, and weakened to 991 mb) -
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    Hurricane Bob in 1991 (although Bob was much stronger than Henri) - https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob And interestingly enough, it almost looks like a similar rainfall pattern too, although the track was a little different (not the Harvey-like getting cutoff and stall before moving out that seems to be progged for Henri) -
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    The fire hose flow is just bizarre. It is spraying moisture from NY, NNW across NNJ and NEPA, and literally all the way out to central PA, where it starts "falling" (dropping) south, and then recurving around to the SE down into MD and across central DE. There's a big hole in between. It's like a giant hook or a hot wheels track or something.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC 12:30 pm update - LANDFALL in Western RI approx. 12:15 pm -
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    A bunch of the NNJ folks have been posting in the NY Metro forum.
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    Mt. Holly's 24 hr precip estimate (as of 8 am, posted 9:13 am) - You can see the sharp cutoff - ETA - I am currently 1.44" for the day so far (1.51" for the 2 day event at post time).
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    NHC 11 am update (weakening and down to 60 mph, at 987 mb, and slowing to 12 mph -
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    Looks we are at or close to landfall in RI. It's hard to tell (at least on doppler) due to all the convection.
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    Here was NHC's 8 am update that I had been waiting on after their 7 am downgrade (still slowing and down to 16 mph, direction change to NNW, pressure holding) -
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    You can see the southern boundary of the fire hose has been drying up. The question would be whether the returns that are west will move around as a pivot as the storm continues to lift to the north.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    Will have to see if that band pivots any further south. I'm up to 1.39" for the day so far although the rate is very light/misty at the moment. This plus yesterday's 0.07" has me at 1.46" so far for the event and now at a whopping 8.31" for the month of August, with 10 days left, an not even at the peak of hurricane season!
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    Looks like a spotter in Mercer, NJ has reported just over 5" of rain so far.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    Looks like NHC dropped it back down to a Tropical Storm at 7 am. NHC 7 am Update (winds dropped to 70 mph and now back to a TS, speed slowed to 18 mph, but pressure deepened to 986 mb) -
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    Will have to see if the pivot maintains the moisture funnel as it seems Mt. Holly was suggesting it could start drying up by the western-most parts as the system lifts to the north. What is throwing the wrench in nailing how it sets up is the ULL south of here that is helping to feed moisture up this way.
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    So far this morning am continuing to get on and off light to moderate rain and am currently at 1.33" for the day (1.40" for the event). My low of 71 (so far) is happening now as my current temp, with dp 71. You can see the fire hose of moisture on radar.
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