Hurricane Agnes

Sun popped up later this afternoon, although the skies have been variable. The high (so far) has been 82 and it's currently 81 with dp 71.

Levi's latest (Tropical tidbits) -

With almost all but the GFS going west, will be interesting to see if the GFS caves...

NHC intermediate advisory -

I know right? I know when Fred was making landfall, it looked like Henri would be a fish storm, looping around Bermuda and out to sea.

Seems to be getting closer and closer to the CWA with rain impacts. Ukie, hot off the press.

Looks like it plowed into N. Jersey a tick further south. I'm gonna go ahead and make a thread...

Looks like the Ukie 12z is running now. I finally checked over in the NY Metro forum and yeah, they are hot on its tail. Was wondering if we should go ahead and make a separate thread on it just in case.

That's what's bugging me out - seeing the inland loop-de-loops coming out of the recent runs across models. Am guessing they are all trying to resolve what will happen with the ridge up in Canada and where it will be by the time Henri gets closer to it.

Backroom deal (although the latest contract details are not known yet).

At a landfall (hour 54) the 3k NAM is actually closer to the ICON and the others hooking into NYC, vs the GFS, which is further east.

I'll do a Ralph with the ICON.

WPC is baking some of that now in their Day 2 & Day 3 (will have to watch for changes - ETA to add Day 1 since S. Jersey is featured in that) -

The ssts north of 40N nearer to LI are cooler which could weaken it (wind wise) but agree that this could be a big rain producer. Will have to see what the warm water does to the cyclone once it starts recurving to the north.

All but one are hitting either LI or SNE so that is definitely concerning. Haven't looked at any threads in the NE forum but I'm sure they are jumping.

I was watching Levi Cowan's video outlook from last night (and even since then, the track has shifted further west). The variables he outlines regarding the strength/position of the trough around us and the position of the ridge to the north, will make the difference on where Henri drifts and turns. ETA - I just looked at the 6Z HMON and it has Henri doing a direct hit right into western LI and NYC. The 6z HWRF has it doing some kind of inland loop - crossing eastern LI and moving inland to CT, and then does a little loop (goes westward across southern NY, then heads back east a bit, drops south, then shifts southeast, and finally exits across eastern LI, and goes out to sea. I do know it's the 6z though.

Yeah, that's why I'm watching - not so much for a direct hit down this way, but any rain bands... We have some spots around the area with antecedent wet conditions and still recovering from flooding, with more progged for the weekend, so it could spell some issues. But if it did hit NY (as a hurricane to boot) then...

And here we are, getting closer and closer. Currently overcast, with some breaks here and there, misty and wet as well (although not enough to tip the bucket) and 74 with dp 70.

I was fruitlessly trying to find something too but neither seemed to have obvious rotation. It's possible that due to the moisture laden environment since Fred had come from the tropics, the rain component in the returns might have obscured those details (I recall reading somewhere noting that could happen where there could be a tornado but it's hard to make out on radar due to the precipitation intensity). Well I'll be keeping an eye out for this - Right now as a TS, it's pretty compact but once it hits that bathwater and gulf stream, it will be interesting to see what it does if/when it strengthens to a hurricane. 89 ended up being my high today and it is currently partly sunny and 84 with dp 72.

Had heard on KYW that Mt. Holly confirmed 2 tornadoes and then saw this - So far my high today has been 89 and the sun has mostly been out today, although the dews continue to be moderately steamy. Currently partly sunny and 88 with dp 73.

Mt. Holly reports what is submitted via CoCoRaHS here - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXLCOPHI&wfo=phi and any Local Storm Reports here (if/when people submit them) - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXLSRPHI&wfo=phi and Public Information Statements here (if/when people are submitting them) - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi At the moment, the CoCoRaHS reports seem to be the most complete, although there are only a handful of Philly reports. I recall last week the Phillies had rain delays on 2 consecutive evenings - 8/10 & 8/11 (one of my BIL's was at the first game). Sometimes you guys get the northern fringe of the storms that come through northern MD and Wilmington, DE. Whenever I have been running either of my doppler programs (GR2Analyst or GRLevel3), I don't recall seeing mpings or other spotter reports from down there though outside of the airport (KPHL), which is the official reading for down there too. I attached a radar image (with 3 overlapping severe thunderstorm warnings) over S. Philly on 8/10 just after 8:30 pm & on the look on 8/11, about 7:50 pm.

Will have to say that however innocuous Fred was when it fell apart over Cuba and never made it to Hurricane status, it still packed a wet wallop once it regenerated itself! Wasn't expecting that rain band line to hold together although we were certainly warm and juicy enough this far east to prime the pump... Currently down to 73, which may end up being my low, and cloudy with dp 73

The 3.45" was my final for the event (now at 6.78" for the month so far). I saw where the Wissahickon Creek went out of its banks (I think ~5ft is flood stage). I'm good through the weekend. It's currently a very wet and mostly cloudy 73 with dp 73.

Looks like Flourtown was reporting a water rescue. I think the heaviest is now pretty much past and currently have 3.42" in the bucket with 0.61"/hr rate. Like a month's worth of rain in an hour. Temp 75 with dp 74. And with that, time to go back to bed. The lightning/thunder has pretty much ended for now. ETA - now at 3.45" and light rain at 2:30 am.

Still >3.5"/hr rates. Now at 3.10" for the event at post time.