Hurricane Agnes

Ukie's been holding steady with the position with the 12z run.

The 12 Euro is all spastic. It seems to follow the Canadian at the same time frame but when you loop a range, it keeps jerking the low east and west like a tug-o-war.

That's why I noted "at least with their early morning tweet".

WPC seems to be going along with a blend by not discounting the Euro (a least with their morning tweet).

This may end up as a "nowcast storm" where people hope some kind of deformation band sets up over top of them and others hope they don't get trapped in the dryslot screw zone.

Canadian is faster and is like "bye guys".

I kept saying that to myself when I saw that. And I thought I saw signals for a thaw period (and possible re-establishment of the western trough/eastern ridge per the AFD I saw... although I don't know if that is transient or not).

Here is what I am doing a WAG about - We know the NAM was made to be a more detailed convective model vs the globals (GFS and Euro). And it seems to me that the Euro programmers were maybe possibly trying to tweak the Euro to attempt to pick up the same kind of convective features that the NAM focuses on (but the NAM limits doing that to the latter mid-range to short-range time frame) and then rolls that into its global programming to make it sortof an "all-in-one" type of model... And if that is actually the case, then it's not working too well.

GEFS 12z throws a little sumpin sumpin back to I95.

12z GFS back to a scrape job.

Did an annotation to show the lat/lon. (I blame you for this! )

Found where WPC does some surface map forecasts - https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps Am attaching their b/w day 4 snapshot (for Jan. 29) where you do see the 50/50 High (at least briefly). The lat/lon lines are there but you have to carefully follow them...

You may be able to generate a loop from this - https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php (ETA - it looks like the time frame lets you set multiple days but it appears to have the current day as the end point)

The 12z NAM was doing the same kind of hopscotch moves as the 6z Euro where it started with a weak low going OTS and then suddenly inhaled some nitro that yanked the low back towards the coast and started crawling up it and then shoved it out some and yanked it back in again.

Did a couple frames. The pulled out view is kinda cool.

I don't think anyone is doubting that it is going to be a strong and juicy storm. It's been honked about for at least a week or more, with hints early on that it would bomb out. The issue is the dynamics of the digging trough that will drive it's path and how far from the coast it goes.

Well everyone always made fun of the NAM and being "NAM'd". But they did finally fix it so it's not as bad as it used to be in the past and is more tempered. However there seems to be a new physical law - "conservation of the amp" and the Euro has become the keeper of the over-amperage (and is now the new NAM).

Well from the Inkie article I posted upthread, including the rest of Tony Gigi's (rainshadow when he posted here) comment - I think this Euro run might be a bit out to lunch (with a lot of obvious extrapolation going on because it's the 6z), so will have to see what the 12z does with more data.

6z Euro back a bit to the west again as the dance continues but it buries from the coast to I-95.

Icon is off to the east with the 6z.

6z GFS continues the east trend (although obviously it's the 6z so...). It does throw a little more back towards I-95.

Apparently the system that would impact how the eastern trough will dig must have finally been sampled and triggered the models to send the storm east. Ukie is mirroring the GFS had actually had it more SE than others for awhile now and that trend continues.

NBM for 0z...

Philly Inquirer has a hilarious article about this storm. A couple excerpts (I have a sub but it may be paywalled - sometimes with a couple free reads) - https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html Pretty much sums it up in here.

The 18z GFS snow map (10:1 & Kuchera) and GEFS depth (it doesn't go "regional" to show a zoom for inches on the map). Snapshot was what appeared to be the max time frame for accums. And as an obs, I did get up to 41 as a high today but that is history. Currently down to 30 with a plummeting dp at 17.