Hurricane Agnes

Mt. Holly's latest hot off the press - I thought the below tweet was hilarious!

At least the low in this latest depiction isn't slapping around itself like a zombie.

There you are... Figured you were cookin' up quite a storm at work today. You can't discount the NAO trend though... and meanwhile, the 18Z GFS looks like it sped up and but continues the precip scrape trend (although it's just the 18z). And as a quick obs, I did make it up to 28 today with a low of 19 and it's currently 24 with dp 7.

Mt. Holly's and WPC's updates -

The Euro has had the low looking like this -

No comment.

18z NAM looks to be moving to the GFS without all the junky feedback (but then it's the 18z).

I was looking more closely at the 12z Euro and 12 NAM and they both have the double-barrel lows that sortof become like a Pushi-pullyu. Am wondering if there's something like convective feedback going on considering it seems there was a consensus that the storm would undergo bombogenesis at some point.

Ukie's been holding steady with the position with the 12z run.

The 12 Euro is all spastic. It seems to follow the Canadian at the same time frame but when you loop a range, it keeps jerking the low east and west like a tug-o-war.

That's why I noted "at least with their early morning tweet".

WPC seems to be going along with a blend by not discounting the Euro (a least with their morning tweet).

This may end up as a "nowcast storm" where people hope some kind of deformation band sets up over top of them and others hope they don't get trapped in the dryslot screw zone.

Canadian is faster and is like "bye guys".

I kept saying that to myself when I saw that. And I thought I saw signals for a thaw period (and possible re-establishment of the western trough/eastern ridge per the AFD I saw... although I don't know if that is transient or not).

Here is what I am doing a WAG about - We know the NAM was made to be a more detailed convective model vs the globals (GFS and Euro). And it seems to me that the Euro programmers were maybe possibly trying to tweak the Euro to attempt to pick up the same kind of convective features that the NAM focuses on (but the NAM limits doing that to the latter mid-range to short-range time frame) and then rolls that into its global programming to make it sortof an "all-in-one" type of model... And if that is actually the case, then it's not working too well.

GEFS 12z throws a little sumpin sumpin back to I95.

12z GFS back to a scrape job.

Did an annotation to show the lat/lon. (I blame you for this! )

Found where WPC does some surface map forecasts - https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps Am attaching their b/w day 4 snapshot (for Jan. 29) where you do see the 50/50 High (at least briefly). The lat/lon lines are there but you have to carefully follow them...

You may be able to generate a loop from this - https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php (ETA - it looks like the time frame lets you set multiple days but it appears to have the current day as the end point)

The 12z NAM was doing the same kind of hopscotch moves as the 6z Euro where it started with a weak low going OTS and then suddenly inhaled some nitro that yanked the low back towards the coast and started crawling up it and then shoved it out some and yanked it back in again.

Did a couple frames. The pulled out view is kinda cool.

I don't think anyone is doubting that it is going to be a strong and juicy storm. It's been honked about for at least a week or more, with hints early on that it would bomb out. The issue is the dynamics of the digging trough that will drive it's path and how far from the coast it goes.