Hurricane Agnes

Temp has been dropping steadily after a high of 44 earlier today. Now down to 28 - but the big story is the dp that got up to 34 earlier this afternoon and has now crashed to 16. I expect the dp will be near or even below 0 sometime tomorrow (or at least sometime this weekend).

Ukie went all in to the west (I don't think the storm is going to go that far west but it will depending on the digging trough for where it will go).

As clarification, "move east" compared to most of the other guidance the past couple days that had it much further inland. The 6z Euro is still running it mostly inland.

6z GEFS shows a move east...

Mt. Holly's initial thoughts yesterday afternoon - And WPC's take -

Made it up to 48 here as a high and with some high clouds that were around on and off most of the day, it's currently 41 with dp 28.

It's just coming into range on the last panel.

LOL he's crying in his beer too after he laughed at the GFS losing the hoochie mama storm and has now joined him.

As a note about this storm regardless of p-type, the full moon is Monday so the tides will be running high and any winds that mixed down can exacerbate flooding along the coast and other waterways. Could be a LV "drought buster" (although it looks like it is a fast mover). Here was Mt. Holly's take last evening - WPC yesterday -

Here's some eye candy from NCEP's CFS model.

0z Euro seems to have gone way west (the 6z not in range from how they do their runs).

Ended up hitting 40 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 26 this morning. Currently partly cloudy and 31 with dp 25.

I'll throw the Ukie in -

Oh man.... I was literally just mumbling that to myself about 5 minutes ago. "Power outage storm". I got one of my sisters a set of 4 portable LED lanterns for Christmas to put around her house because where she lives in Montco, the power lines for her side of the street are strung along a row/stand of woods with a creek in the middle at the other end of the backyard, and the breaking branches take down portions of the lines and/or the transformers, over and over with storms (even with PECO continually pruning around the lines).

The runs have really been showing an amped up storm for sure. We are not in NAM range for it yet but it will be interesting to see what that does with it.

Well you have to look at the ENSO states too because the jetstream(s) is(are) what move these systems and the past fall and early winter, the systems have continued to move fairly rapidly (no blocks). You see front after front just rolling through. If any of those systems get cut off and stall, that is when you get walloped. The GFS had that hoochie mama days ago, lost her, and is crying in his beer!

CMC isn't as far west as the GFS but has the same near-Apps runner concept. Euro appears to be showing the same although looks further east than the others. Could be still seeing mid-range noise. I don't think this will settle down until we get a little closer.

Pittsburgh special!

I wouldn't even trust the 18z (at least the for Jan. 17 storm that has continually popped up on all the models) but start paying attention to the Friday runs. I have seen too many mid-range schizophrenic solutions. Temp here has shot up to 38 with dp 23. Still have some patches of snow here and there. Some clouds have also appeared, so it is partly sunny.

What often happens here is that if there is a real legitimate threat, this place gets crazy busy and the model maps from all kinds of sources will get posted continually. Otherwise the "dud" runs get tucked away and you can hear a pin drop. Just looking at the 6z GFS verbatim, it shows a very active pattern of all kinds of little storms rolling across the U.S. that either go over us or north/south of us. A couple are clippers and there looks like what is something rolling along the southern jetstream that goes out to sea at the same time as one of those clipper passes near us. The last one on the far end of the GFS range looks almost like a summer time thing with a low that forms off the coast of the Carolinas and becomes some kind of nor'easter way east of here. So taking a crack at it with the below clips taken from the 6z GFS what I "see" - 1 - Great lakes thingy jumps to the coast and out to sea (~Jan 13/14) 2 - The storm we had been focusing on for the Jan 17 time frame since its appearance in the long range... but it has now shifted to possibly end up as an inland runner or coastal hugger (at least on the last couple GFS runs) <-- whatever it does, it looks solid as some kind of event with precipitation but not sure what type 3 - Alberta clipper #1 (~Jan 20) 4 - Alberta clipper #2 + some southern jetstream system staying south parallel with the clipper (not phased) (~Jan 23 - 25) 5 - Some storm that forms off the Carolinas and goes out to sea (~Jan 26)

Bottomed out at 18 this morning and some time after 4:30, temp and dp were creeping up and currently at 21 with dp 12.

Ended up with a high of 24 today, but that came at MIDNIGHT, so definitely had some CAA that oozed in! My "daytime" high was around 22. Currently 19 and clear, the winds have died down a lot and are closing in on calm, and have a dp that has finally moved up to 5.

ICON is too (ETA although doing a hoochie dance by NJ).

Thank you - I was living in a high-rise apartment at the time and didn't have garage access then for my car, so it was out in the lot. I was just happy to have parked in the perfect spot in the lot (on the SW side of the building), where the building blocked most of the snow from drifting along that side. And since it was so powdery (I remember in this area, the temps were in the low 20s through the 2-day duration of the event), probably 95% of it had blown right off my car, and I only had some powder on the front bumper that I brushed off in a few minutes. People parked on the other side had their cars buried. It was all over by my birthday (sunny and cold like today), when I finally emerged to do the "french toast run" (milk, bread, eggs) that I laughed off about doing before the storm. Luckily I was a couple blocks from the supermarket and rolled my portable shopping cart down the middle of the street, with 6 foot banks of snow on each side, having to navigate around a car that was abandoned and buried right where it stalled out on the street after the driver was unable to get it out. Thank you!!! I read the thread where he trolled Paul and Paul was being generous in time and patience researching the data to address what devolved into OTT nonsense being spewed about some of the old snow reports by a long-time spotter in Chester County. At that point, the trollery had already escalated into complete idiocy.

Well my my dp "untorched" and it is down to a -0.4 (tenths of an increment - edit, now down to a -0.6). But the temp finally made it "up to" 20 with full sun and all blue skies.