arlwx

Looks like it's still damp here in Arlington. ((Although earlier they did salt the Hill of Doom here.))

LWX on the start of next week: High pressure will dominate Saturday with a little moderation in temps. However, by Sunday, another system is pushing northeastward towards us, with warm advection precip breaking out in our region by day`s end. Cold air looks marginal by this point, so while a mix may start, this again looks like a system which will transition to more liquid than frozen. The low track towards the lower Great Lakes certainly will not help keep the cold air around, though some damming could result in more wintry mix in the favored spots northwest of I-95.

As a back-surgeried warminista, I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Febrrary is ended.

A few stray flakes in Arlington.

Waiting until February, according to the GFS, to start looking for my flamethrower.

Arlington just sent down a truck to spray sand and salt all over The Hill of Doom. They must be concerned about the freeze forecast for tonight. They normally don't do it for the coating that was on the road.

Rain mixing in near DCA.

I guess LWX wanted to note the prospect of freezing rain... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 DCZ001-VAZ054-160500- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.201216T1500Z-201217T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 400 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. A light glaze of ice is also possible on elevated surfaces. * WHERE...In District of Columbia, District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. Snow will overspread the area between 9 and 11 AM, and change to sleet and rain during the early afternoon. Some rain may freeze on elevated surfaces. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square.

Cross-posting: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Tornado watch issued. For central/southern MD. MD/DE Eastern Shore And parts of NJ.

BWI: 17 DCA: 14 IAD: 20 RIC: 10 SBY: 7 ((This warminista is hoping for a repeat of last year, but going more with climo.))

LWX forecasts show potential freezes for Wednesday and Thursday mornings for BWI, maybe RIC too.

DCA is reporting 2.17" so far for the event. The Four Mile Run gauge shows about 2.3".

The GFS currently shows no love for freezinists through 19 Nov. ((so although I didn't spot the contest sooner, I would be on course to be busting bigtime on BWI (31 Oct), RIC (8 Nov) and some for DCA too (15 Nov).))

Close at IAD and BWI but still no cigar. ((oops, just spotted IAD snuck in a 32 on 31 Oct)) DCA 42 BWI 35 IAD 33 RIC 38

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 414 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 MDZ004>006-505-507-508-VAZ505-WVZ053-300415- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0010.201031T0700Z-201031T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0013.201031T0700Z-201031T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Western Loudoun-Jefferson- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Purcellville, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 414 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Northwest Harford and Southeast Harford Counties. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County. In West Virginia, Jefferson County. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. (snip)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-107-113-137-139-153-157- 165-171-187-510-600-610-660-683-685-790-820-840-050200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE HIGHLAND LOUDOUN MADISON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-013-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-050200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for DC and surrounding counties.

LWX may want to fix this part of the forecast... Tuesday Widespread frost after 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tuesday Night Widespread frost before 9pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Freeze watches moving ever closer to Baltimore and Washington. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 MDZ006-507-081530- /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Including the cities of Reisterstown, Cockeysville, and Jarrettsville 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 MDZ004-005-503-505-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-081530- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the first Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. For the second Freeze Watch, sub- freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and north central Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...For the first Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning. For the second Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 MDZ504-506-VAZ052-053-055-056-081530- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0007.200510T0400Z-200510T1400Z/ Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford- Spotsylvania- Including the cities of Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth, and Fredericksburg 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2020 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery and Central and Southeast Howard Counties. In Virginia, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. $$

LWX posted freeze warnings for early Saturday west of the Blue Ridge, freeze watches just to the east. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 MDZ003-VAZ025>031-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-080230- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, and Moorefield 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. $$ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-080230- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0007.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown, Monterey, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 23 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Extreme Western Allegany and Central and Eastern Allegany Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Eastern Grant, Western Mineral, Eastern Mineral, Western Pendleton and Eastern Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-505-506-080230- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.200509T0400Z-200509T1400Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 216 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

If LWX is to be believed, I'd expect quite a few road closures due to small streams out of their banks. I DO hope Arlington has fixed its drains and alerted persons living/working in the usual suspect spots (think Westover, the area of South Glebe Road near the sewage plant, etc.).

From the latest LWX discussion: (snip) .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Notable trends seen this cycle among global models were that the GFS trended deeper/more amplified, closer to the Euro with the upper level trof/closed low fcst to dig across the mid-Atlc states Thu-Fri. Timing differences with respect to upper level trof axis moving across the area have decreased significantly and the rainfall potential has increased somewhat since 24 hrs ago. Anticipating a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event late Wed night into early Thu evening with widespread 1.5 -2.5 inches with the potential for up to 4 inches (reasonable worst case scenario) with heaviest amounts east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin mountains. Forcing and moisture will be plentiful with instability lacking which would limit rainfall rates, but prolonged period of the event, deep moisture, and strong upper level divergence will compensate for lack of instability. While heaviest amounts are expected east of the Blue Ridge, enough spread is shown in the ensembles and difference percentiles to include areas west of the Blue Ridge. Have issued a Flood Watch for much of the area separated with two segments, a western segment with beginning and ending time of 08Z-16Z Thu, and an eastern segment running from 16Z Thu-02Z Fri. (snip)