arlwx

Freeze watches also, extending into SE PA, across the Eastern Shore, and into NJ, also some areas north of Richmond.

Freeze warnings up from LWX. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-508-VAZ025>031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501- 502-505>508-WVZ051>053-170130- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.200417T0400Z-200417T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0003.200417T0400Z-200417T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, central, northern, and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will damage sensitive crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

LWX issued some more freeze warnings for the Shenandoah Valley.

LWX is suggesting some may need a run to the battery store... (snip) The dry slot will work its way into the area later Monday morning and the cold front will pass through the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. On the edge of the dry slot and ahead of the cold front is where stronger thunderstorms are most likely Monday morning and afternoon. Long and curved hodographs are seen in forecast soundings to the very strong winds aloft. The very strong wind flow, along with strong warm and moist advection, combined with forcing from the front and somewhat of an enhancement in instability on the edge of the dry slot, suggests that a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday morning and progress east and northeast into Monday afternoon. Embedded supercells are possible withing the line along with a possible QLCS feature. Therefore, damaging winds are a concern with convection Monday along with an increased threat for a tornado and large hail. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but the storms should have enough motion to keep that threat localized. Another threat for overnight and Monday will be gradient wind outside of heavier showers and thunderstorms. For the overnight, a very strong low-level jet will develop but with warm advection and showers overhead it will be tough to mix down. It will still turn out quite breezy with frequent gusts around 20-35 mph for most areas. There could be gusts 40-55 knots along the highest ridge tops above 3000 feet, but did not include these in a wind headline at this time since it will be very isolated. However, with strong warm advection Monday morning, the mixing layer will begin to increase, causing winds to increase. For Monday afternoon, there will be dry advection and weak cold advection behind the dry slot. This will enhance the mixing layer even more. As of now, it appears that wind gusts will be around 45-55 mph for most areas late Monday morning through most of Monday afternoon. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed. Did issue a High Wind Watch for the ridges of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands as well as the Blue Ridge Mountains where stronger winds are likely over the higher elevations. Also included central Mineral, Grant, and Allegany Counties due to a downsloping flow off the mountains that may enhance winds in those areas. Gusts around 60 mph are possible. One thing to note is that there may be numerous fallen trees if these strong winds do occur, and that is because the ground will be much more saturated due to recent rainfall, compared to when the ground is mainly dry during these types of gradient wind events. (snip)

Be prepared for few locally-grown apples this fall. LWX warnings talk about mid-20s for the northern Shenandoah Valley.

Freeze warnings up for the high ground west of I-95. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 555 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 VAZ036>040-050-051-502-110600- /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0001.200411T0400Z-200411T1300Z/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Southern Fauquier- Including the cities of Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, and Turnbull 555 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the low 30s. * WHERE...Greene, Madison, Nelson, Albemarle, Southern Fauquier, Rappahannock, Orange and Culpeper Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 555 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-501-505>508-WVZ051>053-110600- /O.CAN.KLWX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0001.200411T0400Z-200411T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 555 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures ranging from the mid 20s in the Shenandoah Valley to the low 30s in the northwest DC/Baltimore suburbs. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northern Maryland, central, northern, northwest and western Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. &&

I primarily follow two websites on CV statistics. One is the JHU website, for country and global data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 The other one, that I use for most of the data-by-state, was cobbled together supposedly by a 17 yo whizkid: https://ncov2019.live/data Based on the latter's statistics (which I crosscheck against some state websites), I am less pessimistic. As of 24 Mar, the median daily state increase was 25%. That translates to a doubling time of 3 days. Now, it's a bit below 15%. 15% means doubling every 5 days. BUT THAT STILL MEANS 8 times every 15 days or 64 times per 30 days. If we could get it down to 10% median daily increase, that would be 4X every 15 days or roughly 16 times per 30 days. That would get the US at the end of 30 days to about 5M cases or about 75-125K dead.

The latest from LWX: (snip) SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb. A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence. After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow...hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details. Sunday night into Monday a deep cyclone will build across the Great Lakes. The area will experience high pressure but westerly flow and cold advection. Lows will be in the 40s again by Monday night. (snip)

Shoot- 39 banter pages and only 8 obs pages? lol There's still some nice cherry blossom blooms on local streets and at the Giant (at least as of yesterday). Unfortunately, the first dandelions started blooming too.

BOOM! in Arlington VA. I thought it was a trash truck at first.

Around DC. spring has sprung. Daffodils in sunny spots are already out. Small trees, brambles and other bushes started leafing last week, and now the star magnolias and tulip poplar trees are joining the party.

WSW added to the WWAs. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 228 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 WVZ522-523-526-270330- /O.UPG.KRLX.WW.Y.0005.200227T0000Z-200227T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0001.200227T0000Z-200228T0000Z/ Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Snowshoe and Harman 228 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Southeast Webster, Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Isolated power outages will also be possible due to gusty winds bringing down trees or limbs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

The latest from LWX: NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite and observational trends show that dense fog is expanding in areal coverage as high clouds shift to the east. NSSL-WRF ARW synthetic imagery shows low clouds persisting all day east of the Blue Ridge, the eastern panhandle of WV, and northern MD. Based on its output, areas south of Winchester to Staunton are the only ones that are expected to experience clear skies. It will likely remain quiet through about 21Z, then widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected as low pressure forms along the Appalachians and Blue Ridge and develops north northeastward. The most recent model guidance showed a trend toward less instability/CAPE available due low overcast expected to persist all day. Other parameters such as model flash rate and lifted indices also showed a downward trend in t-storm potential. The areas of greater risk for any severe wx seems to be east of the Appalachians to the I-81 corridor where the most sunshine is expected and generally west of where SPC placed the marginal risk. Cdfnt will sweep through the area between 03Z-06Z Thu with showers ending quickly with fropa. Colder air will follow in its wake with showers turning quickly into snow showers over the Appalachians where sub-advisory snow accumulations are expected. A strong pressure surge behind the front will cause strong winds at higher elevations and have issued a Wind Advisory for the highest elevs from midnight tonight to 15Z Thu.

Late morning update from LWX: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday will start cloudy with areas of drizzle and fog. Ceilings should gradually lift through the day. A second area of low pressure will form along the Blue Ridge and develop northeastward as it reaches southern New England by 12Z Thursday. A deepening upper trough taking a negative tilt will provide large scale forcing for upward vertical motion with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon through late evening. Given strengthening wind fields aloft and increasing shear values, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Wed into early evening before line of showers and embedded t-storms reaches the Chesapeake Bay by 03Z Thu. Cold air will filter in quickly on NW flow with snow showers likely accumulating 1-3 inches over western Grant and Pendleton Counties. Blustery on Thu with winds gusting up to 40 mph.

WSWs up for SE Va. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ096-097-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Quitsna, Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville, Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, and Greenbrier 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to snow. Snow may be heavy at times tonight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible. Wind gusst up to 30 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ017-VAZ087>090-092-093-095-098-523>525-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Western Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to all snow. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times this evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

WSWs now up for SE VA and NE NC. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ096-097-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Quitsna, Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville, Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, and Greenbrier 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to snow. Snow may be heavy at times tonight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible. Wind gusst up to 30 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ017-VAZ087>090-092-093-095-098-523>525-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Western Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to all snow. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times this evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ046-081-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/ Tyrrell-Mainland Hyde- Including the cities of Columbia, Gum Neck, Engelhard, Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, and Swanquarter 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Tyrrell and Mainland Hyde Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091-193-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200220T2100Z-200221T1500Z/ Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Beaufort-Lenoir-Northern Craven- Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City, Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland, Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Snow Hill, Hookerton, Walstonburg, Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Kinston, La Grange, Pink Hill, Vanceboro, Ernul, Dover, and Cove City 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Greene, Beaufort, Lenoir and Northern Craven Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .Rain through much of the day will transition to snow from northwest to southeast between this evening and early tonight. Snow will be heavy at times overnight with the highest snow totals across the northern half of Eastern NC. Snow will taper off Friday morning, with gusty winds continuing through the day. NCZ047-202115- /O.UPG.KMHX.WW.Y.0001.200221T0500Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.200221T0000Z-200221T1500Z/ Mainland Dare- Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, and East Lake 402 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Mainland Dare County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...Accumulating snow is likely across much of central North Carolina today and tonight... .Precipitation will overspread the area from the southwest early today. While the precipitation will initially be all rain, a transition to a wintry mix or a mix of rain and snow is expected during the afternoon. A transition to all snow from north to south is expected thereafter. NCZ009>011-026>028-043-078-202045- /O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.200220T1500Z-200221T1200Z/ Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne- Including the cities of Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Wilson, and Goldsboro 340 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Northern and Central Coastal Plain counties of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday.

That was a bit of an unpleasant surprise yesterday. Looked out in the back yard and LOTS of big branches down. Since there were workmen next door, the assumption was they had thrown the branches over the fence. In reality, the workmen were there to repair a fallen ceiling, and the branches had come from the tree of the neighbor back of him (and us). I presume the strong winds Friday evening did this.

As of 6 am, DCA picked up 1.15" in 6 hours.

As of 5 am on Jan 9, schools in some outer suburbs ( PWC, Stafford, Spotsylvania, Fauquier, Culpeper, Rappahannock, Madison ) announced delays.

My swag: BWI: 18 DCA: 15 IAD: 21 RIC: 10 Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY 8 ((and hoping for much less))

DCA did hit 32 at 2.52 am on 9 Nov.

It'll be close. Right now NWS forecasts DCA to hit 33 at midnight, 2 at 3 am on 9 Nov.

If I had gone with my guesstimate of climo…. BWI//IAD Halloween DCA/RIC Veterans Day I might be slightly close.

As of 554 am, RIC hit 33 degrees. Let's see what the 754 6-hour measurement shows.

GFS is claiming next freeze chances for DCA and RIC start next weekend, with a strong likelihood of freezing by the middle of the following week. That said, it IS the GFS...