TheClimateChanger

I think this "future" is reality in a lot more places than we'd like to admit. Here's Washington, D.C. - 2024 obviously not done yet, but will almost certainly be in top 5, with decent chance for #1. 9 of top 10 since 2010, only 1 prior to 2000.

The "future" is here in some locations. Future summers could regularly be hotter than the hottest on record | NCAR & UCAR News

I suspect the urban heat island was a lot worse in the 1930s. I have seen a lot of photos from that era, and there were like zero trees anywhere. Pittsburgh, no trees. Even the Blue Ridge Parkway was mostly devoid of trees. Basically clear cut everywhere. I think we have billions more trees today than 100 years ago. This probably played a factor in some of the daytime heat.

Count me as a denier. Here is the county-by-county minimum temperature ranks for July 1936. What do we see from this map? First, we see it was actually very cold. Second, there's a VERY odd pattern to the map. The rankings are almost inversely proportional to population density. The coldest locations are some of the least densely populated in the Commonwealth. The warmest are the most densely populated counties. If UHI was affecting the trends, we would expect to see the most populated counties look colder on this map, but in fact the opposite is true. USHCN applies some sort some of urban heat island correction, but it looks to me like the correction is in the wrong direction and the UHI was more significant in 1936.

Season to date [through July 16], temperature and precipitation percentiles: Mean Temperature Total Precipitation

Matches the longest streak of 100+ at both sites. Should it reach 101F, that would be the first time at both locations with 4 consecutive days of temperatures at or above 101.

Imagine spending all this taxpayer money to install an ASOS in Central Park solely for the purpose of "continuity" and placing it in the location least representative of New York City that you can find, so that there is no reliable continuity in the records. Had to be deliberate.

Wow! Look at this photo I found on Wikimedia dated May 24, 2024. This is absolutely absurd. Who was the decisionmaker that identified this as an appropriate location to install the ASOS? It doesn't comply with any siting standards. Most backyard thermometers are more reliably sited than this.

If we don't get any tomorrow, looks like awhile before any more chances.

Through the first half of the summer, it has been 2F warmer than 1995. In 1995, the second half of summer [July 16 - August 30] averaged 77.7F. To match 1995's final summer temperature (75.1F), it would need to average about 75.7F for the remainder of summer.

Morgantown topped out at 94F, ending its streak of 95+ days at 3. That was the longest streak since the 5-day streak ending on August 3, 1995. There were two other occurrences of consecutive 95+ days since then, both of which occurred in 2012 - June 28 & 29, 2012 and July 6 & 7, 2012. Clarksburg, West Virginia reached 98F yesterday and 96F today. The 98F reading was the highest since August 21, 1983, when it also reached 98F. It is the first time in the threaded record with consecutive days of 96F or better since June 26 & 27, 1969.

Elkins, West Virginia reached at least 96F today [elevation: ~2000 feet]. The last time it was hotter was July 16, 1988, when the temperature climbed to 99F. The only other hotter days in the threaded record are September 3, 1953 (97F), August 6, 1918 (99F), August 7, 1918 (98F), and August 11, 1911 (97F).

Clarksburg, West Virginia reached 96F today before thunderstorms brought daytime warming to a quick stop. Yesterday's 98F was the hottest day since August 21, 1983. This is the first time two consecutive days of 96F+ has been observed in the Clarksburg area since June 26 & 27, 1969.

Notably warm first half of summer. Easily the warmest on record at the airport, besting 1994 by nearly 1F. Officially, sixth in the threaded record... although I'm a little skeptical of these 19th century summertime readings. 3rd warmest in the Morgantown Area thread. A lot of the same years show up. Seems to agree 1876 was a hot first half of summer, but not to the tune of nearly 2.5F warmer than this year. 1892 was tossed due to missing the entire month of June.

Also the concept of a 30-year climatological normal wasn't in widespread practice until the late 1940s. If we look at earlier years, the departures were simply calculated from the long-term means. In 1940, these were the 60-year means for Detroit [mostly from the city office] used to calculate departures from normal. If we look strictly at the progression of the annual normal mean at Detroit Metro Wayne Airport, we find the following: 1931-1960: 48.9F 1941-1970: 49.1F 1951-1980: 48.6F 1961-1990: 48.6F 1971-2000: 49.7F 1981-2010: 50.3F 1991-2020: 50.6F

Normals for Boston Logan Airport 1931-1960 on the left, 1961-1990 on the right And for Buffalo Niagara Airport: As you can see, at Boston, winters were only slightly cooler in the 1961-1990 normals versus the 1931-1960 normals. At Buffalo, the winters were actually warmer in the 1961-1990 normals versus the 1931-1960 normals.

Not as much as you might like to think. The normals were corrected for location and site exposure and not just averages of records from various locations. From what I could glean from the Local Climatological Data publications, the normals for each site were as follows: Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Airport 1931-1960 [1967 revision, after it became the official climate site in 1966] 1961-1990 So yeah, it was quite a bit colder during the winter, but there were seasonal variations. Spring was warmer in the 1961-1990 normals, and summer pretty similar. Fall was fairly similar but with some interesting ups [November] and downs [October].

97F at Morgantown, hottest since July 7, 2012.

And how many of these winters would be cooler than the 1961-90 normals?

Not even under a heat advisory.

Wow, 103F at Roanoke, Virginia, as of 4 pm.

Wow, that's pretty hot for 2500 feet. 93F (at least) at Elkins, WV (approx. 2000'). The AWOS at Garret County Airport (approx. 3000') was as high as 88F, but only reports every 15 minutes.

If you take the airmass over West Virginia, and descend it to sea level tomorrow, could see some 102-106F readings, I suspect.