magpiemaniac
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Everything posted by magpiemaniac
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Low of 34.7 this morning with 1.02” of cold rain since yesterday morning.
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NWS expected amounts.
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So the latest GFS, Para, and NAM give me 10:1 snow amounts of 10”, 9” and 3” respectively less than 48 hours out. Surely I’ll get something out of this.
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Those GFS clown map gradients in Alamance County at 1:00 AM Thursday are hilarious. Two-mile difference between 0” and 8”. LOL.
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The 00z GFS was quite an improvement for the northern piedmont especially.
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Yuck is right. Dog missed his walk.
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I don’t get it. It’s been the most consistent and has refused to budge. Probably will end up the most wrong.
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The 18z GFS was a little more generous with the snow in northeast NC and central VA.
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High of 42.8 today and 0.53” of rain so far.
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I used to think a decent snow had to be at least half a foot. It’s pretty pathetic that I’m clamoring for half an inch. Sign of the times.
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I was going to give up today, but these trends keep me interested. Euro gives me 0.5” while the v16 gives me 3”. I was fortunate to over-perform on the January 8 event. I’m hoping for a repeat. Just a few miles might mean the difference between rain and 1” or 2” of snow. Honestly, I’m a lot less optimistic for Thursday than I was for January 8.
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LOL. I guess it depends on where you are.
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The Euro’s 12z run is a slight improvement (for some) over the 00z.
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I’ve been saying that I wouldn’t write Thursday off until today’s models. At this point in the season, you hang on to every hope because they’re aren’t many more of them.
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It’s the v16 against the world. It’s showing rates overcoming borderline surface temperatures. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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The GFSv16 is just playing with us.
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Comparison of 18z vs 00z GFS at same time frame.
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It did. Showed about 3” for you and 7” for me. It’s on crack. The way things are heading, I’ll be amazed if I see flurries.
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00z vs 18z More QPF after this frame, but the trend isn’t good.
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The 00z NAM is colder at the surface than the 18z.
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Did the 18z GFSv16 get stuck at hour 48? Could someone pull the cord, count to ten, and plug it back in?
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You’re right. It’s Tuesday’s highs warmed up a bit compared to yesterday’s NAM runs, but its colder than the other models for this system. The NAM is asking us to not give up just yet.
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That was a mess. No one will be happy with it.
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I’ll throw in the towel (or hang onto it) based on tomorrow’s 12z model runs. I’ll just live vicariously through the Arizona folks getting 3 feet of snow through Tuesday.
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The gradients were something. I had nearly 2” in northern Guilford while my in-laws in western Guilford had flurries.
