magpiemaniac
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Everything posted by magpiemaniac
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The latest HRRR is starting to look like the latest GFS did for middle Tennessee. Not a ton of snow, but better. That might be good sign as this current run develops.
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Hour for hour, the HRRR is colder and the precip slower with Thursday’s event.
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The 18z HRRR that runs out to 48 hours is running now.
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It’s an improvement from the previous run. Next run might be better.
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I’ll take the GFS for Thursday morning and the Euro for Sunday.
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I’m in the 90% for 3” zone. I’d eat my hat.
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I love the mountains and I like the people who live there. But I just want someone in this thread who lives below 1,000 feet to get popped with half a foot of snow this week. It doesn’t have to be me. It’s just that we’ve been so snow starved and I want to experience childlike giddiness through pictures. I’ll settle for vicarious joy.
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I’m at 38.8 at 1:10 PM. I don’t think I’ll get up to the forecasted 62 58 54 50.
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It’ll clobber us on the next run. It’s a modest model and doesn’t want to appear too eager.
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The 12z Euro is starting to get the hint. Improved over the 00z. Not for me necessarily, but Greenville, NC will be pleased.
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Drum roll for the 12z Euro please.
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If the 12z Euro got on board, a thread would make sense maybe. Otherwise, I’m thinking that the GFS has been hacked.
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No. No. No. Please no. Keep it here.
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It seems highly unlikely that what the latest GFS is spitting out will verify for middle Tennessee, so I’m having trouble being sold on this for our side of the Apps. I might get 1” at best.
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Exactly! No thread for this! If we get nothing, so be it.
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Maybe we should ban event-specific threads. LOL. We’ve been jinxing ourselves for years and didn’t even realize it.
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It’s not going to get as warm today as the modeling was predicting originally.
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Up until ten minutes ago, no one thought a call map was necessary for Thursday’s early morning event. (Still might not be.)
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The v16 has been consistent for days with the old model just now catching up. It’s weird.
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I’m supposing that cold air advection and good rates overcome borderline temps, but I did not sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
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The Para maintains its consistency.
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Yeah. Someone explain this without the customary, “Ah, it’s just the GFS.”
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We’ll know soon whether the 06z GFS was a fluke.
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You’re right. I haven’t even looked at the HRRR yet. It’s pretty generous with snow IMBY. IIRC, the HRRR was did a pretty good job with the January 8 event here.
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The 12z NAM really cut back on totals.
