MJO812

Just like that the warmup is gone during the 1st week of December on the gfs thanks to the negative epo

1 run but the gfs showed what a negative epo can do.

Better PV press on the gfs for next week. Like I said , the models have been way too warm in the long range only to get cooler as time goes on.

Its the truth. Look how the models are getting colder again in the mid range. Truth hurts for some of you.

PV is dipping further south on the gfs. Overrunning looking interesting during the 1st week of december.

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The south east ridge shouldn't be strong.

Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong.

Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily.

A better pattern still looks on track in December . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?

You are warmer than the majority of forecasts i have seen on other forums and social media ( hope you fail =) ). The epic December calls by many look like it will fail but a good December is still there. Need the mjo to get out of 7. Maybe we will have a snowy period around the holidays which would be nice.

You are in a way better spot than I am.

Whats wrong with it

Models also had mild weather for this time. Thats why its hard to take the long range seriously.

Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.