George001

I don’t agree that the chances are lower for the first 2 systems, the ensembles have a lot of hits. OP runs are still useless. If anything the chances for the 2nd system has increased.

The ensembles still have a signal. Nothing has changed, 1st threat 10-11th, 2nd threat 13-14th, 3rd threat 17-20th. The later threats are more likely to produce than the earlier ones, but all of them have a chance.

We don’t need the pacific to be good when the blocking is this strong. The blocking will prevent storms from cutting.

I think the new upgrade made the gfs worse. It used to be ok a few years ago, but with every upgrade it gets worse and worse. The gap between the Euro and GFS has only widened, and the Canadian surpassed the GFS a few years ago as well.

The block isn’t going to just disappear, and nothing has been pushed back. The 1st threat is the 10th, 2nd the 13-14th, 3rd 17-20th timeframe. OP runs are useless this far out. They are fun to look at dont get me wrong, but it’s important to take what they say with a grain of salt, good or bad. Besides they don’t even look bad, the Canadian is gearing up a Miller B at the end of the run.

Canadian is gearing up a Miller B at the end of the run

I don’t get why people are saying we are kicking the can. The EPS has a great signal for the 12-13th. Some of the indies take the low into the 970s and 960s. Even if we do kick the can a bit it’s really not a big deal.

That isn’t possible. Blocking suppresses the SE ridge, what we are seeing is the SE ridge already in place, that’s why the blocking and SE ridge look like they are linked up initially. That’s the beginning of the pattern change, the SE ridge gets beaten down some, not completely but enough for NYC north. In Dec 2010 we had a negative NAO and negative PNA.

Didn’t December 2010 have a cold west and strong -NAO and a -PNA, similar to what this December is expected to look like on the models? December 2010 I believe had both a cold west and east.

Yeah if anything the data suggests the NAO matters even more in Ninas, not less.

I think Boston breaks 100 inches this year. I think the NAO will stay negative the entire winter based on the latest long range data.

I’m all in with the Canadians evolution. It has a fairly weak low hit us the 9th, then the low slides offshore and looks like it’s going to continue sliding east. In most patterns, it would. However, the blocking doesn’t let the low move east. It has no choice but to come back and hit us again, and it deepens rapidly due to the warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The airmass is not all that cold, so we will be fighting rain snow lines. That is very much a risk this early in the season, however if the low gets strong enough it can and will create its own cold air. It looks like that is what the Canadian is hinting at, the airmass is fairly mild but the low creates it’s own cold air. This dynamically cools the column, leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. We get over 2 straight days of precip, with some areas in SE mass getting 3+ inches of QPF! Obviously it isn’t all snow, but still it shows just how much potential this pattern has. People clown on the Canadian a lot but I think it has the right idea. Whatever storm that hits us is going to just sit there and rot over us, leading to crazy high QPF outputs. The whole GFS idea of linking up the SE ridge to the block is complete bullshit, it’s more likely that the Patriots win the Super Bowl this year than that actually happening.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -3.1 +.8 +1.3 -5 -3.8 -4.6 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 12.0 62.0 105.0 65.0 70.0 140.0 60.0 8.0 130.0

It starts as rain yes, but the Midwest low looks like it’s starting to transfer offshore and absorb the smaller retrograding low to make one massive low. Looking at the H5 I would think the low would strengthen enough to create its own cold air, leading to the rain snow line crashing south.

The low in the mid west is turning into a Miller B and looks like it’s somehow pulling the coastal low in to absorb it. I…. have no idea what I’m looking at here and what this would look like if you extrapolate it

This doesn’t scream suppression at all

How is that even possible? Snow in Philly while it rains in NNE with the low offshore.

The Pope is very angry today, some shit must have gone down at church. I’d bet he caught a certain Brooklyn cop looking at weather models during a sermon or something.

I guess it’s possible to come up empty but I would think to come up empty in a pattern like this would require a great deal of bad luck. Even with average luck I would think we get at least 1 big one.

The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF.

Miller B?

That’s a good point, to get those insane snowfall totals you need both a great pattern AND luck. That Feb 2021 storm mu area got 8 inches or so, but just a 20 min drive NW and there was 18 inches of snow on the ground. It’s very easy to get screwed like that even in good patterns especially closer to the coast.

I’m expecting around 2 feet total give or take by the end of December in my area. NW 3-4 feet.

The La Niña has not been the problem. The lack of North Atlantic blocking has been a big problem. The models are saying this year will be different. Maybe they will be wrong, but I don’t think it’s likely. How often does blocking this strong on the models just vanish?

Yeah I don’t see how you can possibly be negative about our chances with this look.