George001

It was strong in the Midwest but it elongated and weakened. It is struggling with the pattern

Weird 500mb evolution, the gfs is stringing the energy out.

Wow that’s an insane gradient

I think this with more eastern extension will be a good analog (emphasis on the eastern extension part).

The crazy thing is after this threat there’s more. There is another threat gearing up day 10 on the Euro. It’s not a frigid pattern, but it’s a cold enough and stormy one with lots of chances on the models.

Nice

Euro isn’t out that far on tropical tidbits, how does it look? I saw on other boards that it is more of a hugger track so it starts as rain. However, the low gets very strong, down to 982 mb over around Philly.

As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips.

Even if it does tuck a bit, if the low strengthens enough it will dynamically cool the column. There is a lot of energy around so I think the low will strengthen a lot (like 0z Canadian last night), which creates more room for error with regards to the track. If it deepens to the 970s or 960s the rain snow line could potentially crash right to or even east of the low. The epo is also raging negative so there should be plenty of cold air around.

Agree. It can be a hugger but running that far inland with a strong block? Nah.

The gefs mean moved way north, at least 3-400 miles north of the previous run.

Another nod to the Euro and Canadian

A good rule of thumb for rapidly strengthening upper lows that Bernie Rayno mentioned in his videos is every closed contour means an additional foot of snow. The past few runs both the Canadian and Euro have had at least 2 closed contours, with some Euro runs having 3, and the 0z Canadian having 5! yes, I know the 0z Canadian is probably overdone, but the fact that batshit insane solutions with 5 closed contours are even showing up at all says a lot about how strong this storm is expected to be.

What the hell is the 6z gfs doing? It looks like the other whiff runs at first but then it looks like a new low is forming. Then the new low pulls the ots low back in and absorbs it. Whatever drugs the gfs is on I want some of that shit!

I hope the El Niño stays weak next winter

Miller B pattern

Gfs went from this to out to sea in just a few days. It’s completely lost.

Euro looks great

Gefs are offshore but way north of the OP, and made a nod to the Euro and Canadian since 18z. Gfs doesn’t even agree with its own ensembles.

The Canadian looks like it was ran straight out of my basement

Agreed, but this one looks like it has a higher ceiling due to the reasons I stated in the post above. The ULL is deepening rapidly and is very strong. Gfs is on its own so I’m ignoring it.

Eh gfs is on its own and has gotten worse since the upgrade

Digging deeper into the upper levels for the 12z Euro run, I am convinced that this is a big dog. On the Euro, that northern energy phases into the already closed off upper low and re strengthens it once it gets to around Ohio, and the ULL continues to deepen as it moves west to east. The ULL gets down to 518 dm over the cape and islands. Based on the things I read here my impression is that lower dm = a more powerful storm. A rapidly strengthening ULL from 534 to a triple closed contour 518 dm ULL as it moves from Ohio to over cape cod? I don’t give a flying fuck what the ptype maps say, that run was WAY more impressive than what the surface shows. We have a potent rapidly strengthening closed off ULL about 50-100 miles north of where we want it. Even so, I would think that due to the strength of the storm after starting as rain, as the low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis it would dynamically cool the column leading to the rain snow line crashing SE. Also, 50-100 miles is nothing at this range, even as is I would think the surface output is underestimating the strength of the low and QPF output. Am I missing something here, or is the Euro hinting at a full blown Miller B nor’easter/blizzard potential? I know, I’m trying not to overuse that term but I would think it applies here, as the contrast between the strength of the low and high pressure to the north would lead to extremely windy conditions on top of the heavy snowfall. I’m not saying EVERYONE is going to get clobbered, but I would think someone does, whether it’s the just the interior or coastal areas join in on the fun remains to be seen.

Thats fair. The amount of cold air available will definitely be something those of us in eastern mass need to keep an eye on for this threat. There are some mixed signals with that, hopefully the -EPO and low strength win out over the warm waters and -PNA. At least for my area I agree with the people concerned about rain, that’s a much bigger concern than ots. Something like Feb 2 2021 could be a decent analog if the EPS and Canadian are right.

Idk March 2017 went right over my area or even west and we got about 8 inches before a changeover to sleet and then rain. The ocean temps are warmer now then they were in March 2017 though so you might be right. Depends on how strong the low gets.