George001

Yeah just because we’re on the warm side of the storm doesn’t mean the storm isn’t impressive. It has the potential to develop into a historic blizzard, just not for us. It’s still going to be one hell of a storm for us with huge winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rain. That’s something that is worth tracking. It’s a weather board after all not just a snow board. We track rainstorms too on this forum, hell some of us even enjoy tracking rainstorms. Torch Tiger and Snowman19 for example probably threw a damn party when they saw the Euro cut the low into Michigan last night. They like warmer weather and massive rainstorms. They get a lot of shit for it, but all they are doing is celebrating the weather they enjoy. That’s no different than what snow weenies like myself do. I’m happy for them, we will get our blizzards later in the winter most likely, they will get their cutter for Christmas week. That’s why I love New England weather, there is something for everyone. If it just snowed all year long we wouldn’t have cool shit like bass fishing, golfing, etc.

The pattern did come (-nao, -epo, +pna), but the analogs didn’t work because the earth is warmer than it used to be. Yes I’m blaming climate change for this, I know I’ll get a lot of shit for it but this type of pattern used to be good until the damn ocean furnaced. Hell, the Atlantic is so warm I’m considering going to the cape and trolling for stripers right now in mid December. I bet I’d catch a massive bass. Oh well, on to January. After this cutter it looks like we will get a thaw for a bit on the long range models. I say bring it on, we need a pattern reset and reload.

Euro has one hell of a storm, a 979mb low in Michigan. It looks like the models are starting to come to a consensus, the low isn’t quite going to get to Minnesota, but it’s not going to go over SNE like the gfs was saying either. It sucks that this won’t be snow for us, I jumped the gun for sure when I looked at negative NAO analogs in the past and assumed it would translate to multiple blizzards. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. The temperature of the earth has increased, patterns that used to do one thing in the past may not do the same now. Is winter over? Hell no it isn’t, but this epic pattern that was hyped up didn’t really pan out. Oh well, I’m going to continue to track this storm. Yeah it’s going to rain, but still it’s one hell of a storm and will be exciting to track. Although most of us like snow here, there’s nothing wrong with getting excited about rainstorms too if they are a powerhouse like this one.

The low goes due north after that. 974mb low in Michigan, that’s not what we want to see. Hopefully it resets the pattern and we get a more favorable pattern for the following threats if it’s right. The western ridge axis is just too far west right now.

Yep, Euro has a low in Indianapolis.

Damn that’s a big shift

I know that would still be rain, but I’d be happy with that since it’s a step in the right direction. I hope my initial thoughts that it will go more west is wrong.

Euro time, anyone want to guess where it’s gonna go? I’m thinking we see a low in Nebraska tonight, but could see it in Wisconsin or Chicago as well.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the low location so far with the 0z runs. The Gfs has a low over SNE, Ukie with a low over Chicago, Icon with a low over Buffalo, and the Canadian with a low over Wisconsin.

I hope you are wrong but I agree with this. Honestly, I think the Euro is going to come west even more tonight. Low in Nebraska.

Where is the low location?

Yep, I see a low in Wisconsin. That’s too bad I was hoping to see it get on board.

I have no idea if the shift is going to be good or bad, but yeah that was a massive shift on the gfs with the vort in Alaska. The low will likely move 500+ miles on this run.

Alright major changes on the icon are nice to see, but I’d like to see the Navy on board before I really get excited.

Eh sometimes they turn into Miller Bs

If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense.

Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up?

A 66% chance of a big solution a week out I’ll take those odds any day. If the models actually just trended to the 34% solution and then lock in on that a week out that would be some bullshit

I did see several posts saying the odds we get out of December with nothing on this board and others is very low just 2-3 days ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the next threat will hit, but that’s why I’m thinking we will get hammered at least once before the month ends.

This pattern sucks, if it’s going to rain here in fuck it I hope the low keeps trending west and cuts into Washington. We need something to reset the pattern because what we have right now isn’t working. If we get screwed once it can be written off as bad luck, but again and again? That’s a bad pattern.

Honestly, I was somewhat concerned when I saw Bernie Raynos video where he insisted that the pattern supported a cutter last evening (even before the awful 0z runs). He has his busts, but I’ve been watching his videos for years and the guy knows his shit. When he stuck to his guns and said it was going to cut despite the guidance showing a more favorable solution I saw that as a red flag. That said although it makes sense to lean toward an inland solution right now it’s still worth keeping an eye on. It’s very possible both Bernie and the models are wrong and the entire pattern is shifted 200 miles east. Hopefully the GFS is on to something here.

Yeah even a Canadian solution wouldn’t be horrible (for this threat obviously it is, a full blown cutter with 60 degrees and flooding rains). We sacrifice the first storm, but the trough is so far west that it hangs around longer to set us up for the next storm. Bernie Rayno in his videos talks about how there is often 2 threats with these, one when the trough comes in and one on the back end when the trough leaves.

The storm today failed because the airmass sucks, but the low location wasn’t bad. This upcoming storm is a lot stronger on the models, but could easily run inland. I’m concerned about that but it’s just not accurate to say it’s a carbon copy of the storm today even if it does fail.

I’m at 41 degrees right now with heavy rain