George001
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Everything posted by George001
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holy shit that storm is a beast on the gfs, eventually gets down to the high 970s -
968mb offshore for the second low. A bit too offshore this run but the setup looks promising.
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I don’t think it’s actually going to happen that way, just saying that’s what the model shows verbatim. I would like to see the 500mb upper low cut off a bit se of where it currently is on the gfs.
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It snows east of the low on this run
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Gfs was actually better than 12z, low location a bit more se, not north like I thought it would be. Thermals improved enough that even my area would get a decent amount of snow.
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Gfs looks like it’s going to be more north. It isn’t digging as much with the energy.
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Blizzard.
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The Navy is a burial for the first wave
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Yep, great trends today.
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The 540 line is pretty far se, even on the warmest frame. That’s a big hit just off the coast.
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Good run
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Regression? The post 2016 period has been quite mild with below average snow. With our warming base state we may as well embrace it, as in the long term our climate isn’t getting colder and snowier. That said, this doesn’t mean we can’t get big winters anymore.
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Is there a lag period for the MJO effects to start kicking in? If so that would support the wave 2 idea more than wave 1, since the MJO will have been established in phase 8 longer.
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Looks weak and disorganized for wave 1, let’s see what wave 2 does
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Not a huge storm but better than 18z, good start to the 0z suite.
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Wait a sec it looks really good at hour 150
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Low is way north, over central Long Island.
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Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though
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Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances.
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That’s a burial for NNE, and closes off just a bit too far north for eastern mass.
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It is amping up the wave behind it though
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Yeah there’s no sugarcoating it, yesterday’s gfs wasn’t good at all if you are rooting for snow. Low in Wisconsin with no secondary. Today’s 18z gfs is weak and ots.
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Kev and Torch Tiger all in
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Interesting thing about the gfs is it amps up the wave behind it and turns it into a strong storm just a couple days after the 1st wave whiffs. That second threat is still within the timeframe given for this thread too.
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Gfs is weak and disorganized, Canadian is a cutter and Euro is a big snowstorm. Still a long ways to go with this one.
