George001

I want a hugger track for 2 reasons. One is that the models that are more north (12z Euro) have a better outcome for the following storm. I have 0 interest in a foot of snow that only lasts 3 days before getting washed away. I would rather get 4 inches of snow with some sleet and maybe ice on top of that snowpack and have a better shot at maintaining a snowpack after the follow up wave. The Euro would be a net gain here, yeah I’m going to mix in both storms if it’s right but that’s a better outcome than a full blown cutter after the 7th storm. The second reason is I am going to be spending a lot of time up north to ski, so I want ski areas to do well.

No it won’t be all snow but I could still get a few inches like the Euro shows with a hugger track. I want that fucker to ram into SE MA, and then keep going north into Maine. We are in the game in this pattern, but realistically we aren’t going to avoid taint at some point. I do not expect both the 7th and 10th to be all snow for either of us. Not with that negative PNA.

I want the Euro to be right. Low right over Tblizz’s noggin. I’m with Torch Tiger, I want the low to trend more north.

I’m tracking these threats too, but let’s be honest the Pope knows his shit. If I were to tell you I wasn’t concerned at all about the Pope not being on board, I would be lying.

Am I the only one still watching the 4th? It is too far SE on the models and has been trending in the wrong direction, but it’s still 4 days out. It’s a long shot, but I’m not writing it off yet.

I disagree, a washout would be a disaster for ski areas.

The 7th jumped way north on the models. I’d like to see that trend continue.

With ensemble snow means i feel like the snowfall distribution is just as important if not more important than the amounts. The gefs has heavier snows inland and in the mountains with less along the coastline. That’s a strong signal for a hugger track, not a coastal scraper or southern slider.

Straight up looks like I hacked the gfs and ran it out of my basement. Snows EAST of the low!

Holy shit. The pattern on the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty. Actual fucking COLD!

I’ve been very pessimistic about the pattern since December, but we have 3 legitimate threats to track. 5th, 7th, and then the 10th. I would like to see a bit more cold air, but it’s workable.

It will come north.

The Pope is very angry today, hate to see it

Miller B?

The trough goes neutral over around Alabama for the 5th storm even on the more progressive guidance. Anything from whiff to inland runner is on the table, but in my opinion that one’s coming north. When the trough goes negative, the storm WILL gain latitude. That is absolutely a real threat, I am getting excited about it. I would not be surprised at all if the low runs inland a bit, ramming into SE Mass.

I don’t think both the 5th and 7th will whiff. Rain, yeah that’s a valid concern. The issue is temps, not a lack of moisture.

Models are torching the 1st half of Jan now. So much for that promised “pattern change”. Just like 2016 El Nino is derailing winter. You can come back from punting Dec, but you can’t lose Jan.

That is actually vomit inducing. Again, I can live with missing storms but it isn’t supposed to be this warm in January. Winter is defined by more than just the total seasonal snowfall, a truly good winter actually feels and looks like winter. This means plenty of cold with a sustained snowpack. Bare ground near the Canadian border isn’t normal or expected. It sucks

Give me a hugger that rains for my area and buries NNE. Good skiing conditions >>>>>>> snow at home.

I’ve come to terms with my climo living on the coastal plain, but im going to be up north skiing a lot. That’s why I’m concerned about what’s going on in NNE this year. I’m actually more pissed about the warmth and snowmelt in NNE than getting skunked at home. Hopefully the pattern improves enough that they can build a snowpack and sustain it the rest of the winter.

I’ll give credit for the pattern change verifying if Jan finishes BN temps, regardless of snow.

It’s been warm for a month straight, it shouldn’t be too much to ask for just a few weeks of cold weather but apparently it is.

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that?

I’ll admit it, I do want to see multiple blizzards on the models.

Update: I’m feeling pretty good about my high end strong nino call (1.9 ONI peak seems likely). The storm track so far has been to our west, and based on how December has gone I’m feeling pretty good about that as well. There are a few things I got wrong though. One was that I expected the PDO to increase, and it actually decreased more. That could result in a more unfavorable pacific later in the winter. However, it looks like I also got the arctic pattern very wrong. I said I expected a stronger than normal PV, and a split is highly unlikely. There is now cross guidance support for a polar vortex split, and trying to be as objective as I can I’m not going to ignore that. I don’t think it will make much of a difference for my Dec-Jan forecast, but it very well could for Feb-Mar. The issue is, if we get skunked Jan it will be very difficult to make up the snowfall deficit even if we do get a favorable pattern from the PV split. The pacific is still a concern, and due to this I don’t see the truly high end months like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Mar 2018 etc being in the cards. That’s why I am sticking to my 20-30 inch snowfall forecast for the Boston area.