Mount Joy Snowman

Well, it looks like another threat washed away. No worries, ours will come. I will say, an H850 spread of 10 to -20 degrees across Pennsylvania on Friday would be evidence of one heck of an "I mean business" arctic front. Always love when those real-deal fronts come through, as @Itstrainingtime was alluding to. Could lead to some surprises and either way is an interesting feature to monitor. Name of the game will be cold, which is never a bad thing around Xmas. Now we just need to find some white.

The most freakish weather event I’ve ever been around. Will never forget it.

My official tally for yesterday is a trace to perhaps .05" of ice accretion and 1.75" of liquid. On to next week. Let the model wars begin.

Love seeing someone post from the northern tier. We need more of that God’s Country representation! What is your elevation?

Hard to even call this a winter weather event down in my neck of the woods, just a steady moderate to heavy rain all day long. Now, about that Xmas time period......

Good to see you posting. It's always nice to have fellow Chickies Ridge inhabitants represented on the board.

Interesting. Will they be taking it out to 84 hours or keeping it at the current 60? Would hate to lose that 3-day range.

Haha right. In all seriousness, I was thinking it may serve as like a 10-15 minute lead time. Whoa whoa whoa, come again. Please elaborate on said NAM extermination. Perhaps I was caught out of the loop but haven't heard about this one. That would be terrible, IMO.

Yep, I'm already scoring this one as another W in the NAM column. Sometimes the lower resolution of the GFS and other globals causes them to really struggle with finding those sneaky warm layers aloft. I always trust the higher-res models with regards to precip type. None of them are infallible but more times than not they nail the warm air intrusions while the globals struggle.

Same. I pride myself on knowing every backwoods locale in this Commonwealth, yet had to look this one up. In other news, I'm a solid 9 miles ESE of you now so I should be able to serve as a pretty good warning signal to you for changeover events. Not really relevant today but when we're fighting off the sleet line I should be able to act as a decent barometer for what's coming your way.

The minimal icy glaze that had existed earlier this morning is mostly gone and rain is the name of the game down here.

I was actually thinking of you making that drive when I posted that, since you seem to head up 'er pretty often. I've made it quite a few times as well, and yeah, it's always a different world when you get up there above 2,000'.

Yep, I'm betting on no white at all falling for us. As always, would love to be wrong.

As far as I can tell, the RGEM's primary purpose is to throw out insanely juiced up fantastical FRZ maps that will never come close to verifying, and I'm here for all of it

The truth of all truths. The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV. I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land. If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg. Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha.

I was waiting for someone to mention this haha. Fantasy land often serves up fantasies, but either way it certainly seems like some robust tracking will be in our future. Let's see what the Euro delivers.

The NAM has been consistent in not wanting to give anything accumulating to the southern tier counties.

Down this way we'll be riding that zero-degree line from the surface up through 700mb for much of the duration. I still don't think anything approaching plowable for Lancaster County and would be thrilled to see an inch, which is a shame because the system shouldn't lack for moisture. The WPC graphics pretty much tell the story......

I am declaring an end to all tracking. The 12z Ukie has spoken. This will unquestionably be the final solution. You can put it on the board. All joking aside, this actually seems like a reasonable depiction ha.

The 12z Fighting Manitoba's show a sleet bomb followed by a period of rain for most of the LSV, FWIW.

My main takeaway from the 12z GFS is that the thermal gradient throughout the entire column is just insanely close for most of the LSV in regards to varying precip types. Razor's edge. Plowable snow still quite unlikely for most of the area SE of I-81, IMO, but boy is this going to be close for much of CTP-land.

Where are you seeing anything resembling 50 degrees on that sounding? I see what looks like maybe some mid to upper 30s around 800mb. Apologies if these tired eyes are misreading. Interesting days ahead. The smart play would seem to be for very little of anything accumulating down this way, with the mid to upper tier counties in line for some plowable snow. Much will be sorted out in the coming 36 hours, unless it isn't ha. .12" of rain for me yesterday, in what has been a string of underperformers around here lately, as mentioned by @Itstrainingtime Good luck to all in the money. It's good to see tracking season back in full swing. Cheers.

It's toeing the line between fantasy and reality. As an old Met professor was fond of saying, forecasts more than 5-7 days out aren't worth the paper they're written on. Now, this was 20 years ago so things have improved, but yeah, you get it. Either way, excited to have some real potential on the maps. Canadian and Euro have some variations of this as well. There was a day last week where no one in the country hit 80. Winter is upon us, you can feel it in your loins, or perhaps that's just me ha. Carry on.

My total rainfall for the last couple of days is .36".

I still haven't moved my gauge over to the new house so that's why I've been silent on the recent rain. It's not exactly high on the priority list right now, well, high for me, not so much for the wife haha. I'll stop by tomorrow and check it out. I see your beloved Mammoth Mountain has added an additional 4 feet since the start of December. Seems like they're off to a solid start for the season, would love to see one of those 500-600" type years out there.