Mount Joy Snowman

Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am.

Man, she's a quick hitter. Out of here within a few hours. But boy oh boy could it thump with those dynamics as depicted. Total damage......

Just a beautiful look at H24, with a 984 sitting right in the southern Chesapeake and dumping snow region-wide.

12z HRRR has the SLP further south than 6z through 18 hours, by a decent margin.

Well well well, things have gotten a bit interesting haven't they. I love being wrong ha. Been pouring through some guidance this morning and the one thing that seems clear for the southern tier is that all of our potential snowfall relies on the coastal developing in just the right manner such that it quickly crashes the column and provides for a few hour period of heavy snow right around the morning commute. How much is initially white rain and how efficiently it accumulates will be big X-factors, but I'll be a monkey's uncle if it doesn't look more likely than not at this point that we're going to get at least a couple inches of paste tomorrow. Got my eyes on this 12z suite. First up is the HRRR, running as we speak.

41 here with a couple hundredths of rain and one drunk fella. I’ll be all aboard come tomorrow morning’s shift. Still think this isn’t much of a storm for us down here but some models want to prove me wrong, which would be glorious. Cheers mates!

Low of 44 here. I have always believed this to be a true central to northern PA type event and expect even further shifts to the north. Would put the over/under at one inch down this way and would probably take the under. As always, hope to be wrong. Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone!

I’m with ya brotha.

You summed up my position perfectly. I’m not expecting anything noteworthy (perhaps an inch or two if we get lucky) but still keeping a loose eye on the modeling in case things start to break more favorably as we get inside of 48 hours.

Low of 38 here. MDT busted quite low at 35. Between that and a high of only 57 yesterday, no records were even threatened. We’ll see what today brings.

One thing that's becoming clear for those of us here in the southern LSV, is that this is the ultimate thread the needle situation. Speed of the system, surface temps, potency and path of the Low.......all of it needs to be juuuuust right for us to get meaningful snowfall down this way. And even then, a wet snow falling onto a rain-soaked warm ground will not make for the most efficient accumulations. It can be done but it's definitely a Goldilocks situation. I think this is ultimately a storm for true central to northern PA. As always, hope to be wrong.

https://x.com/MUweather/status/1755994196190564408?s=20 Edit: I thought that would embed that actual tweet but nope. I know from my cell I can sometimes include the tweet. Whatever.....technology.

Canadian came in a little colder, a little further south, and packed a little more punch.

Indeed. However, the most gettable was today's 39 and that chance has already been lost by MDT dropping to a surprising 33 this morning. We have an outside shot of tomorrow's 45 and Sunday's 40 but I would lean towards neither record falling. The high's are probably more realistic at this point, and even those could be razor close.

MDT is also 61 for today; we'll be keeping a close eye on that. 62 is the record for tomorrow.

You are certainly not alone in that line of thinking. The Brands brothers are........something haha.

Haha I just assumed the Bubbler name was related to something else. Yeah, he shouldn't be cutting that much weight. It's unfortunate what some kids put themselves through to get into a lineup. I will say, things are MUCH better than they used to be, with weight descent guidelines more strictly enforced and some of the more egregious weight-cutting tactics being ostracized. Penn State and Iowa wrestle tonight on BTN for anyone interested in seeing the two premier college programs over the last coupe of decades. Although, PSU may beat them in a bad way tonight. Cael Sanderson just has a behemoth going there in State College. Alright, sorry for clogging up the thread with talk of a niche sport haha. Back to weather!

You a Boiling Springs fan? I thought you were in Waynesboro school district?

Indeed it is friend -- Hershey. Team dual championships going on today and tomorrow and the individual postseason gets going next weekend, culminating in the PIAA championships March 7-9 in the Giant Center. Let's go!

Low of 36 here. Intrigued to see these 12z runs today, as we march inside of 96 hours.

From that site, you can go into the archives and change the forecast lead time to whatever you’d like. I briefly looked at <5 days and it seems to pretty much show the same results, with the major difference being that the gaps between the models are significantly narrowed as you reduce the lead time, as expected. Admittedly, I did not spend much time analyzing it.

I have a few takeaways from this. Firstly, is that the Euro is still the top model, and not simply because it has the highest average correlation coefficient, but also because it seems to have significantly less variability than the other models and avoids some of the wild swings and misses. Steady as she goes, some would say. Secondly, the Ukie is still a very solid model in terms of large scale pattern recognition. Thirdly, these data are only taken from the 0z runs over a one-month period, not exactly large sample and prone to some skewing if you have a couple of bad singular runs. I also looked at the same scoring but as an annual average over the last 40 years, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_annual/ which shows that, while the gap has narrowed, there has never been a year when the Euro didn't lead the way over the other major models. Also, for almost the last 20 years, every single year the UK has outscored the GFS, which I think would be a surprise to many, and in fact, even the CMC outscored it the last couple of years. In total, all of the models perform much better these days and the gap between them is mostly negligible. Now, these scores only relate to H500 placement and there is obviously more to predicting everyday on-the-ground weather than that, but they seem as good a place as any to start. Mostly these are fringe differences that would be hard to detect by an observer casually checking all the models on a regular basis. Just my thoughts.

Low of 27 here. I'll start investing more in tracking as we roll into next week but good to at least see some favorable signals emerging. First we have to get through a 3-4 day stretch of +10ish AN type days. National high of 87 at the trusty 'ol staple of Rio Grande Village, TX and low of 1 at Presque Isle, ME. Carry on.

I've got one for ya.......when I was a kid, anytime the song "Let's Go" by The Cars came on, instead of the hook being "I like the nightlife baby", I thought they were saying "I'd like a night light baby". What can I say, I was very young

Same. I bottomed out Monday night at 21 after posting it was 22 when I left the house. This morning was 23 when I left. Much less frost this morning though.