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Mount Joy Snowman

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Everything posted by Mount Joy Snowman

  1. Mount Joy Snowman
    Man, I really like the look at the end of the NAM and RGEM runs, to go along with what the Icon is showing. Would be another quick hitter but could be a fun little advisory type event to kick off the weekend.
  2. Mount Joy Snowman
    That makes sense. Up near Brickerville are ya? I used to fish at Speedwell quite a bit. What's your elevation?
  3. Mount Joy Snowman
    Okay, that kind of backs up what I was saying about some marginal temp issues perhaps reducing accumulation down this way. I wonder how the southern end did?
  4. Mount Joy Snowman
    10am FINAL Obs: Temp up to 35 as snow has tapered off and skies are brightening. An additional half inch brings my storm total to 5.5". It sure seemed like I was under some of the best radar returns for most of the morning but a lot of you did a bit better than me. I'm thinking my marginal temps reduced the efficiency of my accumulation at times. Anyway, very pleased and a stunning scene out there! I will get a liquid measurement a little later and report back. On to Saturday.....
  5. Mount Joy Snowman
    Heck yeah it is. My visibility is about as low as it's been all morning. It does seem like I'm not accumulating quite as efficiently though, with the temp above freezing and rising.
  6. Mount Joy Snowman
    9am Obs: 33/33 with moderate to heavy snow falling. An additional 1.5" brings storm total to 5.0". Visibilities quite low, as a lot of the far-off trees in the neighborhood have disappeared. It will probably pull out of here quickly once we hit the 10 o'clock hour. Just going to enjoy this beautiful scene since it won't last long. Congrats to all!
  7. Mount Joy Snowman
    Good morning from West Hempfield Township! I believe I switched over to snow ~4am. Currently 32/32 with 3.5” and it is ripping snow. Rip roaring I tell ya!
  8. Mount Joy Snowman
    42/40 with a few hundredths of rain as I get ready to hit the hay. I like ~3” of paste for down this way. Accumulation will be very inefficient at times but either way it will be fun to watch some hefty rates. Let’s all get a good night’s rest and reconvene in the morning. It’s always a good day when snow is falling. Night boys!
  9. Mount Joy Snowman
    MU…. https://x.com/muweather/status/1757181855357366783?s=46&t=yE0m3aiFgMNKsTcNdUT1uw
  10. Mount Joy Snowman
    18z RRFS Kuchera......seems like a reasonable depiction......
  11. Mount Joy Snowman
    Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments. I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop. These southern shifts have been something to behold. Great for those of us down here in Amish land though!
  12. Mount Joy Snowman
    That is just a really poor map by the Euro for being only 24 hours out. Unless of course it's right, then......gulp. But honestly, I think we have to toss it. With what Bubbler said about the funny business with the Low placement, it is likely struggling with how to handle location and intensity of the precipitation.
  13. Mount Joy Snowman
    You aren't kidding. Just had a call with my boss about this. Don't think I'm going into the office tomorrow.
  14. Mount Joy Snowman
    The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster. I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch.
  15. Mount Joy Snowman
    The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish. So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch. Not sure what the issue is.
  16. Mount Joy Snowman
    Forgive me if it was already mentioned somewhere but MDT did in fact set a max min record yesterday of 41.
  17. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yeah you're right. I just meant that they still hold that basic look of a central to southern PA type storm with advisory to warning level amounts. Big picture stayed roughly the same. But yes, totals were slashed a bit.
  18. Mount Joy Snowman
    FWIW, the WRF models basically hold serve in being similar to the NAM.
  19. Mount Joy Snowman
    That's exactly what I'm thinking they'll do as well. Yep. If we can get 2+ inch per hour stuff, all bets are off.
  20. Mount Joy Snowman
    3k and 12k are still world's apart with southern totals. Again, how much white rain falls? Elevation, as always, will help tremendously.
  21. Mount Joy Snowman
    NAM is rock steady. A wee bit colder which is good but very quick hitter. It's gonna be all about the THUMP. Got to get it while the gettin's good. Should be a fun few hours tomorrow morning.
  22. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 34 here with .01" of rain. Could we be in for a proper NAM'ing here at 12z?
  23. Mount Joy Snowman
    The 12z RAP has a similar look to the HRRR through the end of its run. Correct me if I'm wrong, because I wasn't following the models closely the last few days, but would this not be quite the early score for the NAM in leading the way?
  24. Mount Joy Snowman
    Even if you cut these projected totals in half, which I would certainly recommend, we're still looking at an advisory type of event down this way. Impressive.
  25. Mount Joy Snowman
    Yeah, for you the flip looks like it could happen as early as 2-3am.
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