Mount Joy Snowman

I've really liked the performance of the RRFS since its inception. Always feel it has a more realistic look to its simulated radar. I check it quite often. It's the one meso that gave me hope overnight ha.

Low of 19 here last night. Always nice to bust low by a good bit. Great radiational cooling. As for the storm, welp, after studying the overnights, can't say I share the optimism of others, at least for points south and east of Harrisburg. In aggregate, the Mesos are virtually all misses for us southern folk and that's who I'm putting more stock in at this point. This would also align with the meager totals being spit out by some of the local television station predictors. Also, as others have mentioned, if this does indeed end up being more of a Miller-B type event and the primary drives that far north and inland, well, for the globals to be in their supposed wheelhouse 2-4 days out and get that almost entirely wrong would just be.....poor. One thing is for sure, today's 12z runs are massive. But if I were a betting man, I'd think CTP lowers their map significantly for down this way. As always, hope to be wrong! Happy Friday all!

Don’t think for a second you’re getting out of this one! And on that note I’m going to bed. See y’all in the morning.

I think you’ll be fine on Sunday.

The 0z HRRR is picking up on major mixing across the southern tier counties very early in the storm. Would basically be a non-event for most of Lancaster County. It’s near the end of its range sooooo. But still a bit worrisome, as I’ve seen it sniff out thermal issues at range a number of times before. Hopefully wrong but food for thought. Aye.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. The grid forecasts can get wonky with how and when they update. Lord knows if you are rain by 4pm we’ve been basically skunked down here ha.

Yes I’ve seen them do that and like the attention to detail. Completely agree.

Some neighboring Offices for those interested.....looks to be pretty consistent....

The NAM definitely came in a little colder but the Kuchera map is about as paltry as we've seen for central PA. Not great.

Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here.

Yes sir. No doubt. As has been stated, we're gonna need rates down here. Big rates before the LLJ gets cranking off the ocean.

FWIW, and it's probably not much ha, but here is 18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm Saturday.....

No York or Lancaster. Thinking an advisory for us. Fitting.

Home. West Hempfield.

Well would you look at that, a nice graupel shower moving through here right now. Love it!

MUCH more. Keeping a close eye on that time period.

This definitely seems to be evolving into more of a prototypical Miller-A type costal with all the attached elements, for better or worse. Could be fun.

For us eastern LSV folk, half of this is from the aforementioned wrap-around bands, so make of that what you will ha......

BUT, GFS really wants to amp the coastal sunday morning and send some death bands back down our way. I know I know haha, but it's there verbatim.

Not as much pop on the GFS, rates a little lower and totals take a small hit.

Heights look a weeeee bit lower on GFS through Hr54 compared to 6z. Could come in a smidge colder.

I've had similar experience with razor's edge events out my way. My old house sat at ~350' but I could drive a half mile up Chickies Ridge to 600' and see white. It's amazing what a little elevation can do in marginal events, which is why I'm thrilled to now sit ~480' haha.

Thanks Davis, apologies for referring to you as "that other fella" haha. We've had a good number of new people around here lately and can be hard to keep track at times.

Indeed you are. If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no? Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'? I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover? I'm not overly familiar with that area. I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'.

This is from 6z but the wind field associated with the LLJ paints almost a perfect picture of where I think that mix line could set up most stubbornly Saturday evening as the southeasterlies get cranking......