Mount Joy Snowman

Had a few scattered downpours during the overnight hours that brought my storm total to 1.94”. More rain Friday and then hopefully a shift to some winter tracking.

Completely agree. Winds were pedestrian, and I’ll check the rain gauge in the morning but I know I’m under 2”. Biggest story was the strength of the snowfall across the I99 corridor.

Wait what?? I’m aware of specific trains being canceled but not all of them. Where did you hear this? I’m talking about tomorrow’s schedule, FYI.

Closing in on an inch of rain here as I sit at 50 degrees. Winds not too bad yet. Some more heavy stuff on the way.

One thing I'm keeping an eye on that looks to be almost a given at this point is the lake effect machine really getting ramped up in the wake of Friday's system. Could make for a very interesting game between the Bills and Steelers Sunday afternoon.

12z Euro keeps the storm idea in tact for the 16th. She's been consistent in showing it.....

CTP upping the totals bigly, as expected....probably still low in a number of spots.....

Be leery of those friends who just stick a ruler in the grass haha! Always good for inflating by an inch or two. I actually had a buddy do this same thing over the weekend; told me he got 3.5" but when I told him not to measure in grass he came back with 2.0" ha. All the official reports from NWS are right around 2 or less for the entire county with one exception -- a 2.7" from near Manheim, so you may be right! Although even that was under 3 and the source for that one was listed as "public" so who knows, could be another grass goblin haha. Nothing on Cocorahs above 2 in the county. I'm not giving you verification so suck on them apples (and yes, two shits are not given here either, just happy to see white).

Yeah I'm thinking the heaviest of the qpf stays confined mostly to Mt. Holly's areas. @pasnownut I'm thinking the cabins up north get a nice thumping through about lunch time. Low of 28 here. Currently 35 with light rain breaking out. I have been, and continue to be, VERY intrigued about the prospects for next week.

.02" from yesterday's rain/snow showers and a low of 36. Snow in the yard hanging on for dear life. Whether rain or snow, looks like we have an action-packed couple of weeks ahead. I still remain optimistic for what the back half of this winter can bring. Onward.

Some nice mood showers just rolled through here. Started as rain but then a decent period of snow. No accumulation. Temp up to 34. Hosting another family gathering today. Orange crushes ready to go in the fridge. Big day of football. Go Packers!

Wow my total QPF here ended up being 1.2”. A real shame I could only squeeze two inches of snow out of that. Temp hasn’t moved from 33 all night and remains there now. Might get some stray snow showers today from this coastal development.

Great post. The answer is….we don’t. That’s what makes this hobby so infuriating haha. But also, if the models were simply dead accurate all the time, we wouldn’t have this hobby. We all love it, even with all its flaws.

In fact, I even recall posting about the first run of the HRRR that showed that outcome and saying how we can’t rule it out and how it has sniffed out similar thermal issues at 48 hours before. I think someone even put a weenie symbol on my post haha.

The HRRR at long range nailed the idea of massive warm air intrusion.

Whereabouts do you live Superstorm?

Boy you ain’t kiddin. There was no battle; the warm air simply won out, as it so often does.

Yeah, I mean there’s absolutely no way I got more than them 20 miles to their southeast. Absurd, but par for the course.

An additional .3 of sneet here over the last couple hours. Event total of 2.3”. Now an 80/20 mix of rain to sleet, with everything compacting and washing away. Fun while it lasted.

It really is quite the battle at the moment ha. Constantly back and forth over here.

Well I’ll be a monkey’s uncle, it’s actually switched back to snow here. Don’t have high hopes but let’s see where this goes.

Seeing multiple mPing reports of sleet well up into Lebanon County already. The HRRR first sniffed out the aggressive eastern warm nose at its maximum range of 48 hours. Impressive.

Mix being reported all the way up to the Lanc/Berks line already. Will be interesting to see if it holds off for the Harrisburg crew as was modeled.

CC line was never really close to me and yet…..here I am sitting under sleet. Would love one more bout of snow under intense rates but I doubt it. We know how this usually goes.

Awesome congrats! We have completely switched over down here. Was really hoping to hold off until 4 or 5pm but warm air wins again down here.