Mount Joy Snowman

Haha I just assumed the Bubbler name was related to something else. Yeah, he shouldn't be cutting that much weight. It's unfortunate what some kids put themselves through to get into a lineup. I will say, things are MUCH better than they used to be, with weight descent guidelines more strictly enforced and some of the more egregious weight-cutting tactics being ostracized. Penn State and Iowa wrestle tonight on BTN for anyone interested in seeing the two premier college programs over the last coupe of decades. Although, PSU may beat them in a bad way tonight. Cael Sanderson just has a behemoth going there in State College. Alright, sorry for clogging up the thread with talk of a niche sport haha. Back to weather!

You a Boiling Springs fan? I thought you were in Waynesboro school district?

Indeed it is friend -- Hershey. Team dual championships going on today and tomorrow and the individual postseason gets going next weekend, culminating in the PIAA championships March 7-9 in the Giant Center. Let's go!

Low of 36 here. Intrigued to see these 12z runs today, as we march inside of 96 hours.

From that site, you can go into the archives and change the forecast lead time to whatever you’d like. I briefly looked at <5 days and it seems to pretty much show the same results, with the major difference being that the gaps between the models are significantly narrowed as you reduce the lead time, as expected. Admittedly, I did not spend much time analyzing it.

I have a few takeaways from this. Firstly, is that the Euro is still the top model, and not simply because it has the highest average correlation coefficient, but also because it seems to have significantly less variability than the other models and avoids some of the wild swings and misses. Steady as she goes, some would say. Secondly, the Ukie is still a very solid model in terms of large scale pattern recognition. Thirdly, these data are only taken from the 0z runs over a one-month period, not exactly large sample and prone to some skewing if you have a couple of bad singular runs. I also looked at the same scoring but as an annual average over the last 40 years, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_annual/ which shows that, while the gap has narrowed, there has never been a year when the Euro didn't lead the way over the other major models. Also, for almost the last 20 years, every single year the UK has outscored the GFS, which I think would be a surprise to many, and in fact, even the CMC outscored it the last couple of years. In total, all of the models perform much better these days and the gap between them is mostly negligible. Now, these scores only relate to H500 placement and there is obviously more to predicting everyday on-the-ground weather than that, but they seem as good a place as any to start. Mostly these are fringe differences that would be hard to detect by an observer casually checking all the models on a regular basis. Just my thoughts.

Low of 27 here. I'll start investing more in tracking as we roll into next week but good to at least see some favorable signals emerging. First we have to get through a 3-4 day stretch of +10ish AN type days. National high of 87 at the trusty 'ol staple of Rio Grande Village, TX and low of 1 at Presque Isle, ME. Carry on.

I've got one for ya.......when I was a kid, anytime the song "Let's Go" by The Cars came on, instead of the hook being "I like the nightlife baby", I thought they were saying "I'd like a night light baby". What can I say, I was very young

Same. I bottomed out Monday night at 21 after posting it was 22 when I left the house. This morning was 23 when I left. Much less frost this morning though.

The record highs of 61/62 for Feb. 9/10 at MDT may have to be put on notice.

You weren’t kidding with the Canadian handling the radiational cooling temps better. I busted quite low here. 22 when I left the house and might go even lower yet. NWS already slashed my low for tonight to 22 as well ha.

Back to back morning lows of 26 here. My P&C is also 26 for the next two nights. No precip in sight. MDT rockin' a cool +9 departure to start the month. Should be another gorgeous day, perfect for sitting behind a desk.

Crisp morning low here of 26 with McDonalds breakfast already in the belly. Should be a ‘beaut. Feels like a take the kids to the park kind of day.

Low of 32 here. Nice to see some beautiful blue skies.

Just did some quick haphazard checking of a number of sites in and around to the west of the Philly area and they all seem to align more with MU's numbers. Likely just a good number of storms that played out with mix lines developing over the area -- something we're all too familiar with ha.

1960�s SNOW STORMS (millersville.edu) I compared all of the individual storms between MDT and MU for the 60/61 and 60/62 years and overall nothing too fishy stands out. A lot of observations are similar, with Harrisburg just doing better with a few big events, as Training noted. Another small but meaningful difference is that MU only seems to track events over .5" and were just generally less accurate with stuff around or under an inch, so all of the .1-.4" type stuff that MDT recorded never shows up for MU and is responsible for a piece of the discrepancy. Who knows how well-manned MU's site was at all times back then. Not going to dig into it anymore but nothing nefarious in my eyes, outside of the neglecting of the <1/2" events by MU.

Following up on this, I didn't realize 1931-32 had a Dec-Feb mean temp of 40.3. No way we're getting anywhere near that top spot. The second place spot of 38.8 is likely well out of reach as well. More than likely, we end up similar to last year's #3 ranking. On the other hand, if the back half of February gets real cold this whole discussion could be moot, and by discussion I mean me talking to myself ha.

Atomix, you're in rare form this morning and I'm here for it. Funny enough, my wife is actually taking the kids into downtown Lancaster later this morning for some sort of festivity. I don't know exactly what's happening but I believe some sort of mammal is involved. But they're all imposters to the almighty Punxsutawney!

And yet, I desperately want to attend said ceremony haha.

.11" of sound machine type rain here through the night. While I wouldn't call the weather ahead hot or anything like a full blown torch, it will be stubbornly consistent with +5ish AN type temps through much of the next week or two. Between that and the way December and January came in this year, I would think we're going to make a serious run at warmest Met Winter in history.

Low of 29 here. MDT ends the month with a mean temp of 35.0, 4.2 AN and good for 20th place all-time. Better tracking in the weeks ahead. Patience, young grasshoppers.

That's fine by me. My yard really needed to dry out. Now, as for late February into early March, let's get rockin'.

Low of 34 but didn't encounter any fog on my way to the train station. Nice boring stretch of weather ahead. Presque Isle, ME coming in with the national low of -20. High was 83 at Glamis, CA. Carry on.

As the "owner and operator" of two toddlers myself, I can completely relate my friend, and am right there with you in the fog of war. As for Chesco, like Training mentioned, he's merely posting his own observations, and from what I can tell the guy has some top line equipment and keeps meticulous records. I see very little, if anything, controversial about a guy posting once a day where he simply reports his own observations and gives a brief forecast for the days ahead. We can quibble about how he compares his data to that of warmer locations from the past, and that's fair game, but all in all the guy is harmless.

Same. Didn’t go as low as forecast.