Mount Joy Snowman

Looking over the NAM and GFS skew-T's for Wed night and it appears there's a warm layer around H800 that wants to spoil the party right off the bat, but then the heavy precip moves in during the late evening and cools the column enough for a couple hour period of heavy snow. The warm nose wins out pretty quickly and by midnight changes everything to rain. The key to squeezing the most out of this potential will be those couple hours where the CAD and column-cooling win out and provide us with two or three hours of hard plaster. We'll really need it to thump but I think it can and will. Hopefully the late night rain is minimized enough to not wash everything away. Keeping a keen eye on this one.

Ugh I hope this isn't one of those scenarios where the dry air just completely eviscerates the northern edge of the precipitation shield. We've seen it before. I distinctly remember a couple events where this has happened. Again, I'll take my 2" right now and walk. The good news is the GFS seems to really be keying in on that CAD front end thump of snow for Wed night. Who knows, maybe that will end up being our bigger event. Weather, always full of surprises.

Outside of the NAM, I'm not loving what I'm seeing from the 12z suite so far. Even some of the less heralded hi-res models are uninspiring. I think I'd sign up for 2" right now and call it a day, just to be safe.

Haha yes I had that as well, where shortly after vomiting I spent most of my time sitting on the commode. Not fun. Sorry for muddying up this thread with talk of bile and soft stools. I'll retreat back into my hole.

Yeah I've never had any type of nausea from covid. I was referring to this separate stomach bug that's been going around, non covid related. It hits hard and fast and then moves on its way. Covid can linger more but I've never found it to be all that severe. Obviously can differ by the individual. Hope you feel better soon Bubbs, we're going to need you to lasso in some threats for us in what feels like a dwindling time period!

Is that the crazy little 24 hour stomach bug that seemingly everyone in existence is getting? All of our friends are going through it right now or have recently. It hit me hard and quick on the way into work a couple of weeks ago and I had to turn right around and take the 9am train back home. It took everything I had to not hurl on the train and then I got home and puked my guts out and was fine 24 hours later. It hit Colin Cowherd live on the air last week. It's wild, must be super contagious.

Happy hungover Monday, all. Low of 26 here. Congrats to all the Eagles fans out there, what a walloping that was! I've been out of the loop with regard to this week's threats but I'll hop back into things for the upcoming 12z suite and see if I can wrangle us some snow.

.2” of IP/ZR accumulation off of .28” liquid here in West Hempfield. Just not enough action down here south of the turnpike but to be fair the models did a pretty good job illustrating that disparity. Happy to hear the jogs north have begun for the Tue/Wed timeframe. I think we’ll be in for a solid 3-4” type of event but will hone in more after the big game today. Good luck to all the birds fans out there. It’s not often you can say this but for today most of the country is rooting for Philly ha.

Aaaanndd just like that, after this latest heavy batch of sleet, everything is covered here as well.

Temp down to 29 as a moderate to heavy mix of IP/ZR moves through. No real accumulation from the sleet but everything is completely iced over already. Great time for the Sterling radar to go down ha.

A new world record of 3:46 just set by the American Nuguse in the indoor mile!

Sitting at 30/25 here as a mix of sleet and freezing rain has broken out. Disappointing to not get any white on the front end but I guess that ship kind of sailed with the delayed start. Don’t think we’ll see a whole lot of qpf here but it will be more than enough to make things dicey out there. Everyone be safe.

Yeah we were actually outside loading the kids so can confirm it was all snow but as you said, it’s already stopped ha. Feels like things are going to be pretty meager for us down here.

Sitting at 33/18 as very stray minuscule flurries have broken out. Not expecting much down this way but I do think someone like @Voyager may do okay today.

Low of 24. Been out of the loop a bit the last 24 hours but it seems we’re losing our Tuesday storm to those damn southerners again? Needing a north shift inside of 84 hours isn’t the worst spot to be in so I’ll hold out hope for at least a few inches. In the meantime, let’s see if we can snag a little over performer today. I wouldn’t mind seeing some sleet pile up.

Whereas the GFS keeps the bigger totals to the south of us, the CMC presents mixing issues for those areas and keeps their totals more meager, while spitting out like 3-6" for most of our area.

I mean, I actually do like where we sit haha, especially with how some of the other models are depicting things. It may work out, it may not, but I'll take that positioning any day of the week.

I've seen enough, official MJS forecast for storm #1 for the Lancaster area: A couple hour period of snow during the mid to late afternoon hours totals about a half inch, followed by a long duration sleet event of varying intensity that amounts to an additional half inch of IP, and ending as a period of light freezing rain and drizzle that adds .05-.1" of glaze on top of everything. All finished up long before the predawn hours, leaving us with a nice inch plus winter cake that should be dense enough to hang around through the day and give us a white-ish Superbowl Sunday evening. Book it.

The NAM continues to advertise a nice couple hour period of moderate snow Saturday afternoon (more so for us easterners) before changing to sleet Saturday evening.

Low of 34 here, and as I mentioned last night, my total qpf came to .49" off of my .2" IP/ZR. I feel real good about Tuesday and real uneasy beyond that. I actually really like Saturday night too as a fun sneaky little event with more upside than yesterday's affair. To say I'll be locked into today's 12z runs is an understatement ha. I am not in favor of separate threads for each threat and haven't had any issues deciphering which posts are about which threat. Just one man's thoughts. National high of 97 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -28 near Poplar, MT for an impressive Lower 48 diurnal range of 125 degrees. Happy Friday, all! NAM is running so dare I say, in my best Kevin James voice........gentlemen, start your engines!!!

My .2” of sleet and ice accretion melted down to .49” liquid. You can all rest easy now.

Yeah probably shouldn't have said shocked, as I’ve always touted the strength of CAD and how it gets under-modeled. Still, thought we’d at least get to upper 30s or 40, especially down my way, and that didn’t even happen. Even when you know its tendencies, CAD can still surprise ha.

I’m still trying to fully figure out our new spot over here on the east end of West Hempfield Township. I’m equidistance from Mount Joy and Lancaster (about 5 miles to each as the crow flies). I also have a wee bit elevation on my side now, as we’re kind of on the northern base of a ridge line.

Lock it the F in!

I am shocked by how much we've been locked in the cold over here. Been stuck around 35 all afternoon. I owe @canderson an apology for guaranteeing a full melt-off ha.