Mount Joy Snowman

Low of only 31 here. Should drop much lower tonight. Glad to see the trends are good for a nice little event to kick off the weekend.

Oh wow. Being right there low along the river certainly doesn’t help — call it the MDT conundrum. My yard still looks pretty good. I just got done shoveling the driveway (WNW facing) and there was about 1-2 inches of heavy wet stuff left on it. I would have let it go for tomorrow’s sun to finish off but have to leave early in the morning and didn’t want to start the day with a face plant ha.

Just melted down the gauge and total liquid for the event is 1.21", of which the first .5" fell as plain rain. That leaves .71" for my 5.5" of snowfall, which equates to an SLR of 7.75. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Also, I wanted to mention that I thought the HRRR was an absolute stud with this storm from the time it came within range. It handled the track and evolution pretty darn well, along with the NAM. It also absolutely nailed the rain to snow changeover time, as well as the snow-ending time, and was pretty darn good with totals too. All in all, it just offered up a really good depiction of how the storm played out. Just one man's opinion.

Ukie not yet ready to play ball for Saturday but seems like it may be close.....ish. Hard to tell from my limited view of the maps.

Lord knows we love the overnight arrival too, don't we.

GFS with a much better look and evolution this go'round. What's crazy is we're already under four days until this event. Won't be long until the Meso's are in range ha. Nothing better during the winter than having one event lead into the next.

Man, I really like the look at the end of the NAM and RGEM runs, to go along with what the Icon is showing. Would be another quick hitter but could be a fun little advisory type event to kick off the weekend.

That makes sense. Up near Brickerville are ya? I used to fish at Speedwell quite a bit. What's your elevation?

Okay, that kind of backs up what I was saying about some marginal temp issues perhaps reducing accumulation down this way. I wonder how the southern end did?

10am FINAL Obs: Temp up to 35 as snow has tapered off and skies are brightening. An additional half inch brings my storm total to 5.5". It sure seemed like I was under some of the best radar returns for most of the morning but a lot of you did a bit better than me. I'm thinking my marginal temps reduced the efficiency of my accumulation at times. Anyway, very pleased and a stunning scene out there! I will get a liquid measurement a little later and report back. On to Saturday.....

Heck yeah it is. My visibility is about as low as it's been all morning. It does seem like I'm not accumulating quite as efficiently though, with the temp above freezing and rising.

9am Obs: 33/33 with moderate to heavy snow falling. An additional 1.5" brings storm total to 5.0". Visibilities quite low, as a lot of the far-off trees in the neighborhood have disappeared. It will probably pull out of here quickly once we hit the 10 o'clock hour. Just going to enjoy this beautiful scene since it won't last long. Congrats to all!

Good morning from West Hempfield Township! I believe I switched over to snow ~4am. Currently 32/32 with 3.5” and it is ripping snow. Rip roaring I tell ya!

42/40 with a few hundredths of rain as I get ready to hit the hay. I like ~3” of paste for down this way. Accumulation will be very inefficient at times but either way it will be fun to watch some hefty rates. Let’s all get a good night’s rest and reconvene in the morning. It’s always a good day when snow is falling. Night boys!

MU…. https://x.com/muweather/status/1757181855357366783?s=46&t=yE0m3aiFgMNKsTcNdUT1uw

18z RRFS Kuchera......seems like a reasonable depiction......

Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments. I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop. These southern shifts have been something to behold. Great for those of us down here in Amish land though!

That is just a really poor map by the Euro for being only 24 hours out. Unless of course it's right, then......gulp. But honestly, I think we have to toss it. With what Bubbler said about the funny business with the Low placement, it is likely struggling with how to handle location and intensity of the precipitation.

You aren't kidding. Just had a call with my boss about this. Don't think I'm going into the office tomorrow.

The RRFS seems stuck on hour 23 but this is what it has for 6am tomorrow, with the flip imminent for York/Lancaster. I've been impressed with this model since its soft launch.

The FV3 has made a career out of looking foolish. So often it just seems to be completely out to lunch. Not sure what the issue is.

Forgive me if it was already mentioned somewhere but MDT did in fact set a max min record yesterday of 41.

Yeah you're right. I just meant that they still hold that basic look of a central to southern PA type storm with advisory to warning level amounts. Big picture stayed roughly the same. But yes, totals were slashed a bit.

FWIW, the WRF models basically hold serve in being similar to the NAM.