Mount Joy Snowman

18z HRRR seems to not be driving the Low so far north and is definitely trying to transfer to the coast earlier but still showing the same early mixing across most all of adams/york/lanc counties. Baby steps, perhaps.

Haven't seen the new map posted yet from CTP....

You did sir. You did. Don't worry, it will be back up in Lake Michigan by 0z tonight haha.

Man does it ever. Worlds better than 0z. Loooong way to go but love to see it.

Fair point and I don't disagree. Down here just hoping to see 2-3 hours of ripping snow before any changeover. Anything more than that is gravy.

Yep. It's the duration that's the main issue, not the rate of precip.

I am comparing to 0z, to which the totals are nearly identical. I don't have access to 6z.

Euro totals look similar to 0z. Very solid through most of central PA with the super tight gradient remaining over York/Lanc counties.

Nobody was acting like it was over for everyone. Absolutely no one. Just southern crew growing more skeptical as we approach the event and higher-res guidance starts to show the all-too-familiar and all-too-persistent warm air noses. We would LOVE to see it go the other way but are trying to stay grounded. I still expect 4-8" north and west of MDT and have said as much. Heck, I just told all my friends that I'm setting the over/under for down here in Hempfield at 2.5", so it's not like I'm expecting a full skunking. I think we see a couple hours of thump and will be thrilled for those in the bigger money. It's all good.

Yeah that one's gonna be a doozy.

GFS is one of our better outcomes for down this way but also probably not our best tool at this point for detecting the minutia, unfortunately.

Seems we need to get stuck under ULLs for those days, for the most part.

My thoughts from Tuesday remain, with the exception of the plowable totals being confined to points northwest of Harrisburg.

We live for false hope around here! Hey, I got my 5-minute graupel shower yesterday so I'm good either way

Some lingering snow showers through northern PA on Sunday but no real effect as to wrap-around costal influence, and certainly not for LSV. Underwhelming. 3k ever so slightly better. FV3, for whatever it's worth, continues to be bleak for the southern counties and this go around virtually blanks them, while increasing totals for central PA.

Yeah some of the sites just do not do a good job of handling any non-snow forms of wintry precip when it comes to accumulation. Like not good at all.

I would really caution against 10:1 maps for most of the LSV. Even Kuchera may be a bit overdone.

Kuchera has pretty much all of York/Lanc ~2", with tight gradient of 3-6" across Dauphin. State College Altoona corridor big winner with 9". Let's see if it wants to develop anything for Sunday with the coastal.

At 7pm 1002 L off VA/NC coastline. Rain through all of Lancaster and much of Berks and points east. Again, more so than 6z. Still holding as snow for MDT and northwest.

By 4pm mixing has occurred through almost all of York/Lanc counties as 1001 Low sits near southeastern VA coastline. Mixing a little further north and more pronounced than 6z.

At 1pm primary 1003 Low now centered over central NC/VA border as it reaches for the coast. Snow breaking out across most of southcentral PA with maybe some light rain out in front for eastern areas. 540 placement very similar to 6z. Very minimal changes thus far.

NAM at Hr 24 minimal changes with 1003 Low near TN/NC border and 540 line in similar placement as 6z across southern PA.

I'm tempted to toss the HRRR, as it is REALLY struggling with Low placement and now has sleet all the way through the Poconos and into the Catskills by 9pm haha. NAM is off and running......

By 6pm the mixing line has shot all the way up through Northumberland County, but again, it still has the primary Low in WV. Could be something. Could be nothing.

Mixing abound on the HRRR across all the LSV southern tier counties, but as Bubbler mentioned it seems to be really struggling with the Low placement. It's not alone in that regard ha. Either way, you can't feel great sitting in York or Lancaster at this point.