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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    If you’re into rain, maybe.
  2. TimB
    At this point, just have to hope GooFuS is lost and the others have a better handle on the situation.
  3. TimB
    Not sure about PIT as the coldest location in the eastern CONUS, but I’ll take it.
  4. TimB
    EC saves the day!
  5. TimB
    It’s setting up the 12/12 heat wave again…
  6. TimB
    Have a feeling that’s going to be the only interesting thing on the GFS run. It’s 8 days out so can’t really take it verbatim.
  7. TimB
    At this point I hope we get an ice storm that knocks out the power for each of the remaining Steelers games.
  8. TimB
    That one at least starts as zr if you take it verbatim.
  9. TimB
    Temps surge with the Monday system.
  10. TimB
    GFS is running, so soon there will be something new to complain about.
  11. TimB
    I would figure it’s difficult to impossible for a lot of posters on these boards (myself included) to set low expectations regarding winter. Even if you understand how the ENSO stuff works, even if you concede that climate change will make our winters progressively less cold and snowy, there’s still a hope that a particular winter will defy the odds, and occasionally they do, and that’s why we stick with this hobby. It’s like a slot machine giving you a small win every once in awhile to keep you coming back.
  12. TimB
    Just remember, even 76 at MDT would be an all-time December record. The odds are against it, but the odds were also against what happened in the Pacific Northwest in June.
  13. TimB
    Both overnight runs have that same garbage in fantasy land. The hot, humid day is even the same day on both runs.
  14. TimB
    Even the famous 18z run the other day with the Arctic blast early next week came on the heels of a 6z run where one of the panels had a 72 imby on the same day. Models seem to be continuing their inevitable recognition of a December pattern we don’t want.
  15. TimB
    To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.
  16. TimB
    In Warren at the moment and enjoying some mood flakes with a couple inches on the ground from yesterday and a couple more inches coming tomorrow. No idea back home.
  17. TimB
    Looks like that streak ended today (-11).
  18. TimB
    About 20 or so. It’s not terribly uncommon.
  19. TimB
    There have only been 4 Marches without even a trace of snow at MDT, and the other 3 all featured measurable snow in Nov. However, it looks like MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year without measurable snow in March or November (2020 had a trace in both).
  20. TimB
    March shutout and Nov shutout in the same year? Wonder if that’s happened before…
  21. TimB
    Looking almost certain that we’ve clinched a negative temp departure for November, we’re at -1.4 through 11/22 and should be mostly below normal the rest of the month. 4th time in the past 5 Novembers that has happened. Also, today marks 5 months since the last day that we officially had a double digit negative daily temp departure.
  22. TimB
    Agreed, nearly every run has some degree of warmth in PA at some point during that period. Not ready to throw in the towel on winter before it even starts, but it seems it’ll be an uphill battle to get a good or even average season.
  23. TimB
    Lot of time to work out the details. 18z 12/7 temp for me went from 21 on the 0z run to 69 on the 6z run.
  24. TimB
    Wait, Feb 2021 wasn’t BN at MDT?
  25. TimB
    On mobile it’s the pulldown on this thing after the first post of each page:
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