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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Oh for sure, warm advection will push the rain line further north than modeled 9 times out of 10, and even if this is that rare exception, I suppose ice totals would be reduced by the fact that some of the event is occurring during the day with temps close to freezing and ground temperatures probably above freezing in many instances.
  2. TimB
    Actually that HRRR run is an unmitigated disaster. Upwards of an inch of zr in a band from the airport through Wexford.
  3. TimB
    HRRR has 33-34 and rain in and around the city through at least 6pm tomorrow, while a steady freezing rain falls all day near the airport.
  4. TimB
    Would guess that the warm air holds on long enough not to snarl the PM commute, but people drive like idiots in rain too.
  5. TimB
    Southeast tier of CLE counties got an advisory, while the rest of their counties got a warning, if that’s any indicator of what product PBZ issues today.
  6. TimB
    Solid swath of 6” across Allegheny County.
  7. TimB
    More zr than 18z total.
  8. TimB
    Of course they will, but pretty sure PBZ leads the nation by a wide margin in watches that get downgraded to advisories.
  9. TimB
    Because the watch only exists for continuity purposes at this point.
  10. TimB
    3-5” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice both would seem to fall well short.
  11. TimB
    How much ice combined with a low end advisory snowfall is worthy of a watch/warning? Surely not 0.0x”, right?
  12. TimB
    Maybe, but even the text of the watch is now 3-5” of snow with up to a tenth of ice. That’s advisory level and not watch or warning worthy no matter how you slice it.
  13. TimB
    0z NAM and HRRR Watches should have never been issued.
  14. TimB
    Rest assured we won’t get to -10, especially since we won’t have snow on the ground.
  15. TimB
    The record for Saturday is -11 if that helps?
  16. TimB
    GFS basically folded. It’s over. Maybe it’ll be like last year and we can get a snowless March and a consolation prize of an inch and a half on April 21st that melts in 3 hours.
  17. TimB
    I’d also be fine with missing out on this storm if there wasn’t still a sour taste from last year when we missed out on a storm in mid-February, not knowing at the time that it was our last chance for any real snowfall, and worrying that this could be that moment.
  18. TimB
    In other news, we overperformed on temps again today, as we always do when there’s snow to melt.
  19. TimB
    Even if it’s several runs, they’ll never take down the watch, they’ll just quietly replace it with an advisory and rejoice in the fact that an advisory was the right call if we get even a trace of zr, since that’s the criteria for an advisory.
  20. TimB
    I’d go as far as to say they should take down the watch, but they’ll leave it up until it turns into an advisory for a trace to a tenth of freezing rain. We met our quota of one good winter month, but now it’s February.
  21. TimB
    1.8” of QPF through 3z Friday, of which 1.72” is rain and the other 0.08” is “freezing rain” that falls during the day at 32 degrees, which is just a glorified way to say plain rain.
  22. TimB
    A boring rainstorm. It’s almost like they set these models up in such a way that they suck us in for a storm we had no business tracking, only to pull the rug out.
  23. TimB
    Looks a lot like the HRRR through 45.
  24. TimB
    12z HRRR was at 33 at daybreak Thursday. 18z HRRR is at 36 at the same time and stays above freezing through the end of its run. Hours and hours of 33 degree rain.
  25. TimB
    If @jwilsonsays it is, there’s a pretty solid chance it is.
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