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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Wow, I thought sure it would get there today. We got past 80 both days this weekend and tomorrow should be the 4th of the year to date.
  2. TimB
    Meanwhile, today is looking like our 16th day so far this April that has failed to reach 60 degrees.
  3. TimB
    Those 10th/90th percentile high temp graphics the NWS puts out on social media seem to indicate a lot of uncertainty, but with a hedge toward the warm side. For Pittsburgh, Saturday is 72-85 with a forecast of 81, Sunday is 75-87 with a forecast of 83.
  4. TimB
    0.7” at PIT makes it official: this won’t be merely an average snow season, it’ll be a slightly above average snow season.
  5. TimB
    Can’t speak for MDT, but all 31 days of May 2018 at PIT were above the normals in place at the time and the month finished at +8.9.
  6. TimB
    Truly glorious to see the snow stick to everything in the middle of the day this far into April.
  7. TimB
    If this actually happened I’d take 1.8” of snow in May no matter how much anyone else got. Would be our third 1” May event ever.
  8. TimB
    Have a feeling models like the HRRR with much more reasonable snow totals in the ridges and basically nothing in the metro area will win out. It’s late April and it’s really hard to get an inch or two of snow this late. This isn’t 4/21/21 with optimal timing and probably isn’t even 4/19/18. Probably more analogous to 4/7/17.
  9. TimB
    Seems the models that do give us Monday snow have it falling heavy for a few hours with great rates, but it’s all during the day and far too warm to stick.
  10. TimB
    Can’t see anything accumulating here in mid-afternoon with August equivalent sun angle and temps in the mid to upper 30s. Still a better chance in areas where the heaviest precip moves through after dark.
  11. TimB
    So like the CMC’s depiction of next weekend?
  12. TimB
    220 is bold, looks like 5/24 would be a record for latest first 80 at MDT.
  13. TimB
    Not even close. It’s at 181 now and would need 58 more days to set a record, and 44 more to even catch 2019-20. Last year also got to 201.
  14. TimB
    The 4/21/21 event was impressive. I believe it was a top 5 snow event for so late in the season.
  15. TimB
    Actually was at 1:05 this morning. 5-min obs make me wonder if even the 82 yesterday was accurate. There were only 2 obs that made it to 80 yesterday and both were sandwiched by missing or 3 degrees cooler temps. I know there’s a F->C->F conversion that goes on here, but it’s still a weird progression.
  16. TimB
    If I had only been a little less generous with the 22” that I forecast for MDT. And PIT wouldn’t have helped me, I would have lowballed it and we ended up right at our normal.
  17. TimB
    Wow, congrats on the top 5 finish. Looks like I wasn’t too far behind you. I’ll take it for it being my first one of these.
  18. TimB
    These early 80 degree days are fantastic, before the humidity cranks up. I’d take a whole summer of days like today but sadly that’s not our climate.
  19. TimB
    2:45 5-min obs was 81 so the official high should be either 80 or 81.
  20. TimB
    10:1 preferably, though it wouldn’t get those kind of ratios.
  21. TimB
    Clown range GFS has some fun stuff in it for the @paweather types who want winter to go on forever. I won’t post it, it’s too far out to be reasonable.
  22. TimB
    Warmest day of the year so far incoming? Or do we continue our April theme of underperforming again?
  23. TimB
    It’s still there in some form at 12z.
  24. TimB
    I don’t buy the evolution the 12z shows, but it’s definitely still there.
  25. TimB
    That would be historic, if highly unlikely. Pittsburgh has never recorded a 4” snowstorm beyond 4/10.
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