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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Verbatim, that does show measurable snow at PIT. I don’t see it happening, but even a tenth this early would be an extremely rare first measurable snowfall (10/18/1972 and 10/18-19/1992).
  2. TimB
    Interesting, gives me deja vu. I think we almost set such a record in April 2020, only to have the second to last day of the month get too warm. But obviously the thing we have going for us in October that we don’t in April is that you’re not “supposed” to see the warmest temperatures late in the month.
  3. TimB
    Yeah, any model output showing measurable snow next week should probably be tossed.
  4. TimB
    And that’s actually the 3rd best of the 0z models for snow in our area, lol.
  5. TimB
    Think that gusty downpour this morning was the fropa. Looks like it was between 8:20 and 8:30 at PIT, so a little after that for most of us.
  6. TimB
    Probably not until a model run shows something like this?
  7. TimB
    It appears a certain icon has appeared in my weather app.
  8. TimB
    Looks like our streak of below normal days finally ends at 15. Longest since Feb 2021.
  9. TimB
    I’ll forgive you for bringing this weather if you don’t also bring us a loss or tie against the Jets. Lol.
  10. TimB
    Yeah, Ian looks to track far enough this way to make for a rainy weekend. Looks like my Saturday evening will be more heavily affected than your Sunday afternoon at this juncture, but won’t stop me from hanging out in the rain for a couple hours.
  11. TimB
    That’s the plan. This your annual Steelers trip?
  12. TimB
    I think we’re actually slightly BN for the YTD.
  13. TimB
    Looks like today’s high of 59 will be the first September day since 2014 that did not get to 60.
  14. TimB
    Still have a shot at a slightly below normal September with the upcoming forecast.
  15. TimB
    The numbers seem to bear out that even in late September last year it was an up and down pattern. I’m not saying we don’t get a miserable stretch in October, but we only had 3 days last September with highs in the 60s and none were consecutive.
  16. TimB
    NWS blames Fiona for locking in our chilly pattern in their forecast discussion. The Euro makes next week look especially chilly with lots of highs in the 50s. GFS allows the Midwest ridge to encroach a little more and keep us cool but not unseasonably. Of course, by the end of the Euro run, the yet to be named storm is in our backyard, so it seems our weather is going to be heavily influenced by what’s going on in the tropics for the foreseeable future.
  17. TimB
    Really starting to look like a pretty drastic change mid to late week. This warm stretch doesn’t look unbearable either.
  18. TimB
    PA is entirely inside it on one clown range panel of the 12z GFS.
  19. TimB
    Second summer arrives this weekend and sticks around for who knows how long. My bet is on longer rather than shorter.
  20. TimB
    As far as I can tell, the fall record for lows of 60 or above is 16 (13 if you only include the KPIT era). We’re at 5 now, and although we could have a few close calls the next few nights, the official NWS forecast does currently have us tacking on at least another week with no 50s so we could get close.
  21. TimB
    Speaking of “not egregiously warm” patterns and “mostly warm lows.” When we analyze recent Septembers next year at this time, we’ll see a pattern that wasn’t miserable, but the ground truth is pain.
  22. TimB
    Who do I have to sell my soul to for a September that actually feels like fall?
  23. TimB
    Seconded. Today’s 6z is comical.
  24. TimB
    Anyhow, GFS and EC are now way out of phase during that period mid-next week. GFS looks near-record hot under a massive ridge, EC has a trough in the east and near perfect conditions.
  25. TimB
    Think 2017, when our 90s were 6/13, 9/24 and 9/27.
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