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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    18z long range HRRR that shows the whole storm I would guess should look better than 12z. The last few hourly runs have trended up through hour 18. Edit: it’s keeping hope alive for a high end advisory event.
  2. TimB
    Sure enough, just like the 12z model suite, NWS has made a slight adjustment for the better:
  3. TimB
    Both NAMs were very underwhelming. No real winners except far eastern PA.
  4. TimB
    How? I thought there was a Ross snow hole in the MLK storm.
  5. TimB
    HRRR puts down a solid 5”, with some areas of the county exceeding 6” in places that see the lake enhanced bands in NW flow (which the NWS admits may be overdone).
  6. TimB
    Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long.
  7. TimB
    So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset?
  8. TimB
    Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95.
  9. TimB
    GFS continues to look pretty good. Most everything else continues to look pretty meh. Something has to give.
  10. TimB
    I think his comments make sense. If we get 2-4” we finish the winter with a total in the 30s, while if we get nothing we can still finish the winter with a total in the 20s which gives him more of an avenue to complain about how horrible this winter was.
  11. TimB
    So basically the maps that were issued at 1:50 pm are based on 0z model runs?
  12. TimB
    It’s not the watch that is perplexing. It’s more the fact that the forecast snow map actually increased from 5.3” to 6.4” in Pittsburgh despite the fact that the models seem to have gone the other way in the time between the issuances of those two maps.
  13. TimB
    Maybe they’re including yesterday’s total in the 5-7?
  14. TimB
    5-7”? This is looking more and more like just a frontal passage for us.
  15. TimB
    Hopefully it’s just the NAM being stupid but we’ve heard this song before and we know how it ends.
  16. TimB
    HRRR looks progressive as hell. About 4”. NAM came back a tick NW. Not enough to put us in the bullseye but looks better than 6z.
  17. TimB
    NWS official forecast is up to 5.3” but that will surely go down if the models, especially the NAM, are onto something. The 6z was a complete disaster (if you can actually reasonably apply words like “disaster” to not getting much snow).
  18. TimB
    Won’t post the FV3 because it’s the FV3, but it’s weenie dream material.
  19. TimB
    NAM with a tick SE. Too close for comfort but still a big hit, and a monster storm to our south and east. RGEM looks a lot like the NAM with where the heavy stuff lines up but gives us more breathing room on the western fringe.
  20. TimB
    18z GFS held serve. Also gives an idea of just how cold we could get Sunday morning (7) if we can manage at least partial clearing with a snowpack. Haven’t been into the single digits so late in March since 1993. GEFS ensemble mean keeps going up too. 6.6” with 81% of members showing a 4” snowfall.
  21. TimB
    GFS scaled back a bit on Saturday but still showing about 7”, which is probably a more realistic expectation anyway.
  22. TimB
    Don’t worry. I’m kidding. It’s 1000x more fun to get these types of events without a headline than with one.
  23. TimB
    Just went out and measured about 3.75”. Where are all the “they should have issued an advisory” posts?
  24. TimB
    This is one of the most beautiful p-type busts I can remember.
  25. TimB
    NWS tweeted that they had 2.3” as of 9:30.
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