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TimB

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  1. TimB
    I’m certainly not arguing that it makes it better, I’m with you that it looks wonky as all hell. It’s the Susquehanna River, not Lake Superior. Just relaying info about how the ASOS obs are calculated.
  2. TimB
    Sure, it’s the operational CMC at 234 hours, but:
  3. TimB
    MDT’s official high was 80, so the 81 was definitely a rounding of a Celsius number. I learned some new stuff about how this ASOS stuff works yesterday (or at least how it worked in 1998, when the below was published, and it’s possible it hasn’t changed). The 5-min obs are actually averages of five 1-min obs. It’s described in section 3.1.2 of the link below. https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/aum-toc.pdf
  4. TimB
    That’s the Celsius thing. For example, 76F = 24.4C, which rounds to 24C (75.2F) and shows up as 75. Likewise, 78F = 25.6C, rounds to 26C (78.8F) and shows up as 79.
  5. TimB
    For contrast, every 5-min obs at PIT since 2:50 has been 81. Every single one of them.
  6. TimB
    Still, even if you take the 75 to be a 76 that was rounded to the nearest degree Celsius and the 81 to be an 80 that was rounded, you’re looking at a 4 degree increase in 9 minutes in the late afternoon of a sunny day. It’s odd.
  7. TimB
    It looks like Monday was day 206 without hitting 80. So Tuesday, Wednesday, but not Thursday would make 208.
  8. TimB
    Looks like MDT did just record a 5-min obs of 81, so the high will be at least 80 and your streak ends at 208.
  9. TimB
    With Celsius to Fahrenheit rounding that could be 77->78->74 but that’s still suspect.
  10. TimB
    Record is 239 in 1892-1893. That would be the long shot to end all long shots. The record you’re legitimately angling for isn’t the consecutive days record, but the first 80 record, which was 5/23/1893. 220 will get you there.
  11. TimB
    Was just looking at that this morning, remembering how crazy I thought your 210-220 prediction sounded. Today is day 206 at MDT. Sure, there’s a chance of a day overperforming but the current forecast does not show MDT quite getting to 80 this week or weekend. There are 10 other years that have made it this far into May without a single 80. Another week and it’ll be down to 5.
  12. TimB
    Western Atlantic troughing pushes your ridge too far west to make it hot here. Still, slightly above normal temps with sun would be a good break from this pattern. Plenty of time still for big heat if you want it.
  13. TimB
    That’s the real problem is this pattern is funneling warm air up from the gulf, but if the ridge axis sets up where you want it to, I think we can squeeze out a mostly rain-free period. I think 90 is a reach but it’s within the range of plausible solutions from what I’ve seen on the models and ensembles. Especially the Canadian, but that might be overblown. The other weird thing is, as much of a warm month as May was in the 2010s, we have not set a daily record high on any day in May since 1993.
  14. TimB
    Next week looking hotter and hotter. Might @Ahoffget his first 90 early this year?
  15. TimB
    I saw that lol. Went to see if there was any new content on there to laugh at and all I saw was someone talking about him getting suspended. What got him suspended?
  16. TimB
    Nice to start the day with a good thunderstorm or two.
  17. TimB
    https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt It does have that Celsius to Fahrenheit rounding thing on the 5-min obs, so you do have to be careful.
  18. TimB
    MDT’s highest 5-min reading was 64, so the high will almost certainly be 64 or 65.
  19. TimB
    Looks like it was 5/11/66. Today will take 3rd place there behind just that and 4/30/61.
  20. TimB
    Not far. DCA was 42.
  21. TimB
    That has to be close to a latest freeze for BWI.
  22. TimB
    I want to say the absolute minimum for PIT this past winter occurred between hourly obs that were a solid 6-7 degrees warmer.
  23. TimB
    It does look a little odd, doesn’t look like it coincides with clearing skies or calming winds (obs were clear with a puff of wind both before, during and after).
  24. TimB
    Here’s the 5 min obs from 5:56-6:56 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt
  25. TimB
    Record low for tomorrow is 29, which looks like there’s a chance. Last year on the same date we set a record warm low of 66.
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