TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Fact of the matter is we’ll be down to 10 at some point Friday morning, regardless of semantics. -
TWC isn’t any better.
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More importantly, NWS seems to be rolling with 1-1.5”.
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Enjoyed this way too much. Point and click for PIT.
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I feel like the Kuchera’s going to overestimate us on this one. No way we’re getting the kind of ratios that an air temp in the single digits would imply in that calculation.
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Would you define something like .7” as getting blanked?
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Alarmingly, a solid half of them are this century. It’s about a 25% chance these days, it appears.
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Wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS issued an advisory if they end up agreeing with the 1-3”, given the additional impacts and the fact that it’s happening on a busy travel day.
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I think they use a 72 hour rule so we may have their first forecast later today.
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The weather fanatic in me says there’s plenty to watch here, even if we don’t get much if any snow. I’m coming around to the idea that this is going to be a fun little blast of winter no matter how much or little white stuff we get.
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Is jwilson an actual met or is he just smart? Or did he stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?
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Probably too early to take any NAM output seriously.
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I know it’s the NAM at range, but the first look at the back end snow potential on the NAM is, well… not good.
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Part of Florida was red or at the very least grey, so not quite the same. This is literally 100% coverage of red, and it happens alarmingly often.
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Guess what’s back yet again. Entire CONUS above normal, as seems to happen at least 5 times a year these days. The opposite never happens.
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Ensembles are virtually unchanged for snow from 0z. Maybe an inch, two if we’re lucky on the ground for Christmas. The biggest change is that all of them bring the Arctic front through on Friday morning rather than later in the day.
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SW flow behind the front. Forget it.
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Once the 500 anomalies on the GEFS go red over our area next Tuesday, they stay red for the remainder of the run.
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Continues to crush our back end snow dreams. You know that’s how it’s going to play out too.
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Probably. I don’t spend much time thinking about what that model shows for any situation.
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To the extent that the Ukie matters, it’s now showing 0.2” of snow.
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GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18. Would like to believe for practical, non weather weenie purposes that it’s probably better if this happens earlier in the day.
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Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees.
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12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe.
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Yeah, looks like the front comes through early enough that at least we don’t get midnighted on Saturday. I’m just concerned that we overperform if we get any sunshine and no snow cover. I didn’t realize the low max for Christmas Eve was so attainable (13). I knew about the 0 on Christmas 1983, but I didn’t realize just how impressive that was. Looks like the next coldest December high in the last 100 years was 7.
