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TimB

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  1. TimB
    Would think if a major Arctic invasion were to actually occur, and it seems to pop up on a number of model runs, it would be ushered in with a small amount of snow. That seems to be fairly typical. Seems like the timing of that would coincide pretty well with Christmas if it did happen.
  2. TimB
    Look up 1983. I’d take something like that. Long and short of it is this happened with no more than 1” on the ground on the front end of the Arctic blast.
  3. TimB
    Seems to be a pretty strong signal for some good cold around Christmas but a long way to go and probably suppression anyway.
  4. TimB
    EC makes it warm again by early next week. This is unreal.
  5. TimB
    Our chances still look better than they did a day or two ago. But the only run that really gave us a good snow total was the 18z yesterday.
  6. TimB
    Did someone say sports?
  7. TimB
    Dumbest pattern.
  8. TimB
    Even in Christmas week, which is allegedly our better shot, the ensembles look like this. Don’t shoot the messenger. Even if this is delayed but not denied, our window is looking shorter and shorter. But that’s just December in the modern era.
  9. TimB
    GFS is quite ugly with the amount of warmth on Thursday and even it has never spit out 60s, only upper 50s. Everything else suggests 40s/low 50s. Not sure where Ron is getting 66 from. Maybe you could ask him if you see him between now and then.
  10. TimB
    I’d say we’re doing okay. We didn’t get any less snow today when the high was 56 than on Thursday when the high was 33.
  11. TimB
    As long as mets and people with more technical knowledge than myself say it’s still happening, I’m going to keep the faith. But it’s definitely a test of patience.
  12. TimB
    Ensembles still look good in the day 10-15 range, but yikes to that 6z GFS, it was horrific.
  13. TimB
    That seems to be the general consensus. Week before Christmas or so. I’m cool with that if it actually happens and we don’t get a rerun of last year. Though I guess I’d take a rerun of last year over a rerun of 2016-17 or 2018-19 or 2019-20.
  14. TimB
    12z GFS is falling in line with the Euro. Game over on the 12/9 threat.
  15. TimB
    Almost seems like we just went through this for a solid month and a half last winter or something.
  16. TimB
    6z GFS has a similar storm. Euro, on the other hand, has a cutter and is warm through 240. So unfortunately we’ve now seen the bad scenario pop up on both models. Still time to change, I guess. Canadian for what it’s worth tracks a low right over us and gives us rain, but at least it’s not a torch.
  17. TimB
    18z GFS was about the worst model run you could possibly get for what’s supposed to be a good winter pattern.
  18. TimB
    I guess that’s the other thing, being that the normals are means and not medians of statistics with no upper limit, it’s going to be naturally more likely to get a BN snowfall month than an AN snowfall month. It is literally impossible to get a month that is 15” below normal but you can get a month that is 15” (or more) above normal if you’re lucky.
  19. TimB
    Models are showing a much more workable pattern this morning. Let’s hope that’s a trend.
  20. TimB
    Other than 2020, when was our last good December? And by good, I mean even average.
  21. TimB
    So this is the patience game yet again, waiting for winter to materialize. Let’s hope this turns out more like 21-22 than like 19-20. But this is an ominous sign, most of what I’ve read has said December was our best shot at a good winter month this year.
  22. TimB
    Meh, it’s November. Missing out doesn’t sting as much.
  23. TimB
    Probably outdated at this point, unfortunately. Time stamp appears to be Friday, before models trended warmer for next weekend. GFS has a beast of a storm at 12z, but a waste of 2” QPF that falls as all rain.
  24. TimB
    Looks like PIT squeezed out 0.1” of snow just before midnight last night to extend the streak of days with measurable snow to 5. The only time such a streak has occurred earlier in the season is November 11-18, 1995.
  25. TimB
    If today’s high of 32 so far at PIT holds, it’ll be the first day we didn’t get above freezing since March 28th. The 234 days in between will be tied for 9th shortest on record and shortest since 1969.
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