TimB

Would be nice to see the GFS break out of its slump in a big way by correctly predicting this cold snap well in advance. Though the Euro is in fact now running as cold as or even colder than the GFS during this period (Euro keeps much of PA a few degrees either side of freezing on Friday afternoon while GFS has widespread 40s).

Not that we trust the temps the CMC puts out, but this is insane.

Euro is a lot of winter people’s friend for Thursday...

The Euro’s solution for Thursday is intriguing! Only 3 snowier April days in the record book if we can manage to get this. Also keeps us below freezing Friday, which would be incredibly rare for April (last happened in 2007, then 1982 before that). Probably a ceiling for that event. Most model runs predict some snow, though just a modest amount. Another note: this is possibly our last snow chance, given the forecast of a very warm April for most of the US. If we don’t see another flake of snow, we would shatter the old record for earliest last flakes (T) by almost three weeks (3/5/21, record is 3/24 in both 1998 and 2008). If this comes to pass, people can draw their own conclusions when it comes to first/last dates records being not only broken, but completely obliterated.

Thanks for the PTSD, I’m still bitter about the 2/15-16 debacle. Especially considering it was followed by a storm that somehow had a major last-minute SE shift and we haven’t seen snow in Pittsburgh since.

I’m not describing yesterday as a bust at all. The residents of Newnan, GA and Ohatchee, AL certainly wouldn’t. Though there weren’t a lot of storms, most of the ones that did form were massive and produced very long track tornadoes. I’m merely stating that the HRRR badly misplaced the locations that were most at risk. At the same time, I fully understand that we as humans have a lot to learn about how these mechanisms work and it’s humbling to see how far off we often are from what was forecast and what the models predicted.

So long story short, there is no model made in Europe designed to forecast severe weather outbreaks in the US.

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

I wasn’t alive, though I do remember the April 2002 heatwave, which is one of the other standard-bearers for mid-April heat in PA and surrounding areas (though this wasn’t on Easter).

A quick glance shows this was 1976, and still holds all time April records for most of the major cities on the eastern seaboard.

For me, I think it’s pretty straightforward. An Easter that was cold and snowy is a lot more memorable than an Easter that was 64 and sunny. Also, I wouldn’t refer to any April temperature that is within the realm of possibility in PA as “frigid.”

I don’t know about “far less hype”...

All it takes is one to make this a disastrous event and I hope it’s not too late for that.

My God, this seems catastrophic. Worst case scenario.

I suspected it might be something like that, but still was surprised to see it in a warning. It reads to me like a warning saying “Locations impacted include A, B, C, Walmart Distribution Center, D, E, F, Cabela’s, X, Y, Z.” But in seriousness, I sincerely hope the plant gave those people off work today due to the tornado risk and prioritized safety over capitalism. But we know how that usually goes.

* Locations impacted include... Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell, Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before.

Ah, that makes more sense. I read it as “we have tornadoes all the time, so we’re used to it and that will help mitigate the effects if a violent tornado does run right through the middle of our city.” And I hope as much as the next guy that a violent tornado does NOT run through your city or any other town. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.”

I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day?

Last week’s was “a few intense tornadoes likely”...”several intense tornadoes expected” seems a bit more ominous.

Maxed out TOR probabilities.

Was thinking about this. Anecdotally, I would guess that the 30 days before and after about 3/15 have always been our windiest period. Maybe more so in recent years, but I’ve never looked at the data. As for tomorrow’s event, 2/24/19 (I think our most recent high wind watch/warning event in Allegheny County) comes to mind, but over a smaller area of the US and of somewhat lesser magnitude. I just looked at the SPC outlook and reports from the day before that event and lo and behold, there was a tornado outbreak over MS/AL the day before. (Side note: 59 currently at KPIT, 4 degrees warmer than the same time yesterday. That method correctly predicted yesterday’s high of 73, I’m going to say we make it to 77 today if the rain holds off. HRRR agrees. 1pm update: still running 5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Upper 70s still seems on track.)

Sorry, I should have specified what I meant by “a tornado.” I’m not talking about garden variety EF-1’s, I mean something like an EF-4. I’m happy for you that the severity and paths of the tornadoes you get every year haven’t been catastrophic, and I hope we’ll still be able to say the same tomorrow.

Huntsville metro has half a million people. Granted that’s a bit smaller than Birmingham and a lot smaller than Nashville, but comparable to Jackson, MS, and I think the general consensus (with which I agree) was that it was lucky that a “population center” like the Jackson area dodged a bullet last week. A tornado in or around Huntsville would be catastrophic.