TimB

It’s easier to see both sides when people with the opposite viewpoint don’t go around saying a statement like “I don’t want to be around a bunch of people who refuse to get vaccinated” is an “extremist viewpoint,” especially when it is a viewpoint commonly held by a large number of people.

100% correct. Our suffering won’t end until Bob Nutting sells the team.

Not from upstate NY, but we have the same old story in Pittsburgh these days. But people fail to recognize that there’s a problem, as evidenced by the fact that if we get an unseasonably cold day, even if it comes after 17 days in a row of above normal temperatures, the self-professed comedians are all over the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page cracking stale and unfunny (and misinformed) “jokes” about global warming.

I’d say try being a Pirates fan, but then there’s 1979 and 1971 (but both of those are before my time).

That said, even with so many records being broken, the eye-popping heat records (daily record highs in July) have stayed relatively safe in places like the interior Northeast and Midwest.

Perhaps that’s why I like the cold and snow records better than I like the heat records - because, to continue the baseball analogy, the heat records are like someone on steroids (or a player for the Rockies) hitting 60-70 home runs in a season.

I’m a stats guy. Probably why I’m a fan of both weather and baseball even though both are boring to much of the general populace and both let me down constantly.

I get that it’s a little harder to get snow in March and April, and that those of us who love snow shouldn’t complain (but often do) when one event or another doesn’t pan out, but we’re talking about a March where (*checks records for MDT*) Harrisburg will likely not even record a flake of snow, which never occurred in the first 110 years of recorded data at Harrisburg, but has now occurred four times since 2000. It’s been a similar story in Pittsburgh, where we officially got a fluke 0.1” out of a squall at the airport on the 1st (I recorded a T at home) and nothing else, which is our least snowy March since observations were moved to the airport in 1948. So I’d say the disappointment is warranted.

Nearly every model has trended to an inch or less, but the NWS introduced the “heavy at times” wording into its point and click and shows 4.6” both at the airport and my house, though the zone forecast for Allegheny County and the forecast discussion are consistent with an inch or less. Not exactly sure what they’re seeing or if it’s a mistake with the point and click. Edit: this appears to have been fixed. Less than an inch of snow.

That’s fair, there aren’t many winters that fit all that snow into such a short period. But let’s hope the 2021-22 winter starts on time like the last one did or even early, an unseasonably warm December like we often get would have us staring down the barrel of a 10 month almost snowless period.

That is a fact. Though I did say 1” was in my list of possibilities I deem “acceptable,” not necessarily multiple inches. Also, less than half an inch of snow from February 23 on is hard to achieve. It’s only been achieved once in the history of this city, and never in the past 118 years. I wouldn’t rule out that my reaction would be along those lines. But your sample size of my posts on here only goes back to February 3rd, and that time period includes no major snowstorms, back-to-back busts, and a period of historic snow futility starting the last week of February. But it may be glass-half-empty/glass-half-full, since that period also included the 3 weeks of snow cover and consistent cold temperatures that allowed us to keep the snow from the storm just before I joined this forum.

Looks like another typical Pittsburgh letdown with our last chance at snow, now it looks like it stays rain for longer so less moisture for snow after the changeover. I could live with even 1” to avenge a terrible March and close the books on winter, but I don’t see us getting that.

Officially a trace of snow yesterday. Assures we won’t set a ridiculous record. Also will be a trace of snow for today, it looks like the 3am and 5am observations at KPIT included snow flurries. NWS has put 0.2” of snow into the point and click for after midnight Thursday morning. That would be twice as much as our March total. 12z NAM gives us something like that, but 12z GFS is snowier. Interested to see what the 12z Euro does, given that the NAM and GFS trended in opposite directions.

I haven’t looked much into it - have the cold mornings generally stuck around as long as the CMC predicts or have they generally exited when other models said they would?

Would be nice to see the GFS break out of its slump in a big way by correctly predicting this cold snap well in advance. Though the Euro is in fact now running as cold as or even colder than the GFS during this period (Euro keeps much of PA a few degrees either side of freezing on Friday afternoon while GFS has widespread 40s).

Not that we trust the temps the CMC puts out, but this is insane.

Euro is a lot of winter people’s friend for Thursday...

The Euro’s solution for Thursday is intriguing! Only 3 snowier April days in the record book if we can manage to get this. Also keeps us below freezing Friday, which would be incredibly rare for April (last happened in 2007, then 1982 before that). Probably a ceiling for that event. Most model runs predict some snow, though just a modest amount. Another note: this is possibly our last snow chance, given the forecast of a very warm April for most of the US. If we don’t see another flake of snow, we would shatter the old record for earliest last flakes (T) by almost three weeks (3/5/21, record is 3/24 in both 1998 and 2008). If this comes to pass, people can draw their own conclusions when it comes to first/last dates records being not only broken, but completely obliterated.

Thanks for the PTSD, I’m still bitter about the 2/15-16 debacle. Especially considering it was followed by a storm that somehow had a major last-minute SE shift and we haven’t seen snow in Pittsburgh since.

I’m not describing yesterday as a bust at all. The residents of Newnan, GA and Ohatchee, AL certainly wouldn’t. Though there weren’t a lot of storms, most of the ones that did form were massive and produced very long track tornadoes. I’m merely stating that the HRRR badly misplaced the locations that were most at risk. At the same time, I fully understand that we as humans have a lot to learn about how these mechanisms work and it’s humbling to see how far off we often are from what was forecast and what the models predicted.

So long story short, there is no model made in Europe designed to forecast severe weather outbreaks in the US.

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

I wasn’t alive, though I do remember the April 2002 heatwave, which is one of the other standard-bearers for mid-April heat in PA and surrounding areas (though this wasn’t on Easter).

A quick glance shows this was 1976, and still holds all time April records for most of the major cities on the eastern seaboard.