TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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I don’t know the climatology for NW Ohio particularly well, but I would venture to guess that even 2-3” of slop in those areas in the 20s of April is incredibly rare. The 4/14/19 storm is indeed impressive, but every week you add in spring makes multi-inch snowfalls anywhere in this region exponentially more impressive. The difference between getting accumulating snow on 4/14 vs. 4/21 is simply not the same as the difference between getting accumulating snow on 2/14 vs. 2/21 or even 3/14 vs. 3/21.
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That’s definitely exaggeration. Sure, it’s more exciting when Chicago or Detroit or Pittsburgh gets the jackpot than when it’s in BFE places like Lima, OH, but 5+ inches anywhere non-mountainous in late April isn’t a non-event.
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What, you mean posting the Kuchera maps in January and the 10:1 maps in April isn’t the way to go?
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I guess we’ll let Ohio have another one. All they have going for them is college football and snowstorm jackpots.
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We know the easiest way to prevent this thing from continuing to potentially mutate into variants that are vaccine-resistant, if people would just do that.
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The question for the way upper Ohio Valley (NWS PBZ’s domain) would be, can the GFS be dismissed as total garbage? NWS PBZ seems to say yes based on their point and click.
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Again, probably true, but I think he’s saying of all 85+ year olds, 0.86% have gotten covid and been hospitalized for it.
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I don’t always agree with @schoeppeya but I at least know he tries to argue in good faith and give him the benefit of the doubt when trying to figure out what he’s talking about.
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I honestly have no idea, but I’m sure it’s in the single digits for the population as a whole. The mere idea that anyone would think it’s over 50% is ludicrous and terrifying to me.
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Oh, I think I know what he means now. He means 0.86% of all 85+ year olds have been hospitalized with covid, regardless of whether or not they had covid. Which I believe, though it’s also largely immaterial.
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Less than a percent hospitalization rate for 85+? I’m curious where you saw that.
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Deleted my post because I don’t want another knock down drag out about unrelated political issues like we had in here the other night, but suffice to say both sides of the media sell “panic porn and fear” about various issues and instill irrational fears into people, and if I remember correctly from reading about that poll, Republicans grossly underestimated the hospitalization rate. So it goes both ways.
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Unusual vs. historic. Return intervals. Essentially what I’m saying is a lot of people want to see a once in a generation/lifetime/recorded history event, as opposed to something that is unusual compared to climate normals but occurs fairly regularly.
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Everything is shifting SE...
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Any more SE shifts in this week’s models and the summer fans won’t be happy... -
I forgot how bad of a miss that was. Looks like the initial D1 outlook had half of Iowa in a MRGL risk and a very small section of SE IA in a SLGT. By the time things got upgraded to a MDT risk and PDS watch, it was already too late.
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Love the Gordon Lightfoot reference but I vehemently disagree with this sentiment from their forecast discussion: This sets the stage for a winter storm to come terrorize the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps that`s a little dramatic, but lets face it. No one wants snow or cold at the end of April.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thought I saw the NWS post the other day that the growing season has begun in Allegheny County and points south. A good frost at my place and hit 31 at the airport this morning. Must have been a complete surprise/more radiational cooling than expected, because I don’t think a frost advisory/freeze warning was issued. (Though I would say a freeze warning wouldn’t have been warranted, AGC and I imagine many other areas of the county only dropped to near 35.) -
True. We all see the CPC maps that have 90% of the CONUS above normal and just that section normal or below. And they occur for most of the year. So it shouldn’t surprise me, but any area having a monthly temperature anomaly of 27.5 degrees is noteworthy. I wouldn’t imagine any area of the CONUS has been +27.5 for a month.
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Found one. Great Falls, MT had 7 below normal months in 2019 including a February that was 27.5 below normal!
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I have a feeling Brazil will surpass us in deaths when it’s all said and done. And they have less than 2/3 our population...
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LOT and IWX at least have solid discussions. DTX’s looks very vague.
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Not sure where this should go, but does anyone know of any official climate site in the US that had at least 6 months that averaged below normal temperatures in the same calendar year from 2011-2020?
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Depends on what you define as a warm spell. I know what you mean, that people will attribute a week or two that is well above average to global warming, which is definitely asinine. But if the warm spell we’re talking about is many locations having 10 or 11 months per year with above normal temperatures, year after year after year, then it gets a little murkier. Edit: this is way off topic and we’re not going down this road in yet another thread. Agree to disagree.
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I don’t think when someone is talking about the “Eastern US”, anyone could possibly believe they’re talking about Texas...
