TimB

The key here is that unlike the 12z model suite, the 18z HRRR total doesn’t include what fell early this afternoon.

18z HRRR looks ugly. 2” QPF and it’s only up to 9z.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Euro has shifted.....north. Also, 0.68” officially at PIT in a half hour.

Looks like some PWS in the east end are reporting 1.5”+ already. Dormont area too.

I edited the above post. I think it was the other convective models that wanted to push it south, as much as you can trust those. NAM and HRRR both had a slight increase in qpf in the immediate area. That’s the thing here, it’s just like winter. No clarity about anything. At least we know the p-type this time.

Yeah, early returns from the NAM and earlier runs of the HRRR looked promising for less rain. Everything else has made a decisive shift north. Actually, not sure where I got that. Maybe from the other convective models, or from haste. Wasn’t the NAM or HRRR. Other thing is these ongoing slow-moving storms this afternoon ahead of the main event. Flash flood warnings in effect this afternoon.

The short range models gave me hope of a slight south nudge, but the globals are coming in north.

North. Yuck. Note that a solid inch of the 4.3 at PIT comes from this afternoon’s convection. Not that that helps too much with any potential flooding issues.

But would he leapfrog Mason Rudolph on the depth chart? Because if not, we’re talking about a 3rd string QB that would likely never see the field. It’s not like Duck Hodges ever saw any meaningful.....oh wait.

But would you rather have a cheap bum in Haskins or an expensive bum in Newton?

Haskins is expected to make the roster, per sources, if that affects the equation.

Feel like the 12z models are shifting back south (GFS is an exception, but are we relying on the GFS inside 24 hours?).

9.4”

Exactly. We’re far from out of the woods here.

12z HRRR (those darker yellows are still a little too close for comfort):

I mean I understand there’s a lot more confidence in a major event in CTP’s area than there is in ours, but I feel like our discussion wouldn’t be any more robust even if such totals were expected in Pittsburgh.

CTP’s discussion is below. Thoughts?

I tend to agree. Not necessarily because I think we’ll see a half foot of rain in the immediate Pittsburgh area - that’s probably an outlier, but because there’s a solid chance that some location in the PBZ forecast area (MGW, perhaps?) will see 6”. And that possibility covers a solid number of counties under their jurisdiction.

0z NAM and HRRR both shifted back north. NAM keeps the flooding rains mostly in WV (1-2” here) but HRRR puts a 6” here. (I’m also a hard no when it comes to rooting for this.)

I think the one thing I’ll give this summer, especially June and July, is that there were some incredible cool and dry days with lower humidity. June balanced it out with a fair number of very warm days. Problem with August has been that all the good days were front-loaded at the beginning of the month so it’s been a brutal almost 4 week period.

Can’t believe I’m calling a met summer a win when it will finish with a temperature departure near +1.2, even with respect to the warmer normals. But I think it was by and large a pleasant summer except for these warm, humid August stretches, we really didn’t get to 90 all that often, and our longest stretch of 80+ was 12 days (maybe 13 if tomorrow overperforms).

10.6 at MDT? Good lord.

Maybe there’ll soon be more confidence that Ida will be a fringe job so the only weather we have to think about is the upcoming perfect early fall weather.

Looks like no power in the entire city now. Hope the levees hold.

This is trouble. One mitigating factor here may be that the last couple rounds of heavy rain have been in north sections of the area (places near Cranberry and adjacent areas got near 3” from the midweek storms and got a wicked storm today). At least this may focus on the southern half of the area, though it is still early and lots of time to change. Still, as others have said, 4+” in a short time is probably too much for most of the area to handle no matter what the antecedent conditions are. (But it’s looking very likely that regardless of what happens, the good stuff we’ve been waiting for is just on the other side of Ida.)