TimB

Since this is a glorified sports thread, I’ll bite. You have high hopes for the Steelers, or Cowboys, or Eagles, or whoever when the season starts. But then they lose the opener. You think “oh well, plenty of time to turn it around.” Then Week 2 rolls around and they lose again. Oh shit, this doesn’t look good. Hopefully some major adjustments happen in Week 3. But Week 3 rolls around and they’re down 17-7 at the half. That’s about where things stand right now wx wise. Hopefully the halftime adjustments are good.

Of course there will be. I don’t believe that anyone finishes the winter with single digit snow totals or anything like that. We’re still a month or so from optimal climo. It probably won’t be like last winter and I’ve accepted that.

I really do think it will and hope it will, but have braced myself for the nonzero chance that it won’t. That’s all I’m saying.

0z CMC Ensemble at 384: 0z GFS Ensemble at 384: If I squint long enough at the GFS one it kinda looks like maybe it could be more favorable.

I’ll believe it when we can go a day without seeing 60s in the long term on a GFS run.

That’s the thing. This could be like ‘15-‘16 and turn around with the new year, but it could just as easily be like ‘19-‘20.

Hadn’t gotten to the Euro yet. Love it! Warm tongue definitely makes it a snow to rain to snow scenario verbatim, but nothing we haven’t seen around these parts.

Yep. Don’t look at Christmas on the 6z.

The fact that it wasn’t mentioned again in here can’t be good.

All a bunch of bastards if you ask me.

Joe’s long lost twin.

Cold air does pour in behind it. Who knows how long it’ll last. My guess is not long.

Yeah that’s what I mean. People romanticize the ‘90s as having been a snow lover’s dream but it really wasn’t.

GFS hasn’t really been on the Saturday heat train for next weekend, and hopefully that domino never falls.

A few winters of that decade were amazing, but the bad ones were incredibly bad. Kinda like the 2010s.

Looks like sadly that’s correct, and the CMC is on board with it too. And the Euro ensemble has ridging out to 240.

Without looking at the model, I’m going to guess based on your post that it’s still saying next Saturday will be just as warm as this one.

It’s a complete and total embarrassment. This defense is a disgrace to the rich history of this organization. (And I say this without even a reference to the offense that has yet to score.)

In fact, the warmest panel at MDT on the entire EC run is 18z on Saturday the 18th.

And the EC seems to be preparing to provide some bad news for next weekend.

A brief shot of dry cold, then…… another cutter.

And a Midwest cutter that torches the East. Yawn.

Would be something of interest in this boring pattern. Doesn’t even have to be anything close to severe as far as I’m concerned, a good garden variety t-storm would be satisfying.

Someone should have told him not to show up in the MA sub right before another snowstorm bust.

SPC also introduced a marginal risk of severe on D3 (Saturday) for MDT and points SE.