WinterWxLuvr

Don’t think the initial cad will be the issue. Might affect the duration, but how much precip will we get while the gettin is good is the question.

And that’s why I think the low has to get at least to the Ohio River

Mainly because there’s very little precip at all to the sw on the east side of the apps

I agree with that.

I’d rather stay interested in a possible winter event that is within a reasonable range than worry about hypothetical “better” events. If those come to fruition I’ll be highly interested in them as well. Until then I’m gonna follow this until it’s over or no longer feasible. I agree with you that people don’t need to live and die by model runs but I’m not getting why some are dismissing this chance. We followed an anafrontal “event” that had no chance imo and rarely if ever do. These types of events work for us often, at least some of us. We don’t have the climate to ever dismiss a chance.

I think this is highly dependent upon what goes on in that northern stream. Still seeing a lot of fluctuation there. We are still at least 5+ days away. It may very well not go our way but I don’t think we are out by a long shot, especially with some improvement shown with the gfs.

I think it’s significant, especially for an ens mean. I’d bet there are some significant storms in that mix

Don’t think it’s hopeless.

I certainly appreciate your maps but for me it would be so helpful to have the 0z map as well for comparison. Thanks

I think the focus is more the position of the low. Yes I know the cad is a function of the same mechanism that positions the low but the low position will probably dictate the amount of precip in that vital initial slug. Both models took significant steps in moving that low further southeast. Get that low better positioned and I think it’s game on and an added bonus would likely be a deeper stronger cad wedge. Just my opinion.

In a major league way.

The gfs is trending back our way. Small steps but next weekend is still very much in play IMO.

So you would grace us

The 500 changes across the whole of North America have been pretty numerous over the past few runs, especially up over Quebec. I suspect these smaller pieces are gonna have a big impact on the final outcome. We need something to force this low further south as well as hold that colder air over the ne. Think we also don’t want a sharp trough will that energy coming across the Midwest. The better solutions had a less pronounced 500 wave.

There it is

Too early, better pattern the next week

And that’s where expectations come in. Any visions of an all snow event probably need to be put away. That’s why I want that low close. Heavy precip early while frozen, transfer overhead and then caa behind it to freeze it all in place. Boom

In my experience if you get it to central TN it’ll jump. But probably way too far north and late for us.

Exactly how would that happen?

My thoughts are this ends up as probably our second or maybe even best significant winter event this year. LOL, I know that doesn’t say much. Reminds me of the chill storm of 2012.

It is absolutely under modeled

We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early.

That euro solution with the snow down the spine of the apps is perplexing to me. If the 850’s sty cold enough for snow that’s likely to be a more widespread area. Doubt seriously we hang on to 850’s but somehow the surface warms in a cad setup.

Exactly. Anybody looking past next weekend to something “better” after is missing out (and evidently not very experienced)