WinterWxLuvr
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Everything posted by WinterWxLuvr
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It is absolutely under modeled
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We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early.
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That euro solution with the snow down the spine of the apps is perplexing to me. If the 850’s sty cold enough for snow that’s likely to be a more widespread area. Doubt seriously we hang on to 850’s but somehow the surface warms in a cad setup.
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Exactly. Anybody looking past next weekend to something “better” after is missing out (and evidently not very experienced)
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If the Euro says it is he will say it is.
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I agree with Ralph. The 6z gfs wasn’t a good run for next weekend.
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I agree with this to a degree. The gfs is usually too cold at long range but that is typically arctic air lush to the south from the nw. This is cad cold for next weekend. Often that is undermodeled across the board. The negative for next weekend for me is that for the past 12 hours of runs the low position has worsened across the models. I’d really like to see that low make it to the Ohio Valley. Not a fan of the Kansas to Michigan track ( or worse) lol.
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Much colder. Each run is trending colder. Now to get that low in a better spot.
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Personally I’ll take what the gfs is showing for next weekend. I couldn’t care less about it being all snow or not.
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This run again has better 850’s and 2m temps. Incremental improvements.
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That low in ne Texas isn’t terrible. Getting it slide more e than north isn’t out of the realm. At this range all the models had Tuesday’s low pressure heading up west of the apps. Think we may be watching this for a few days.
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Exactly
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Gonna be interesting to watch the system next weekend IMO. Euro ensemble would say to me keep watching.
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That’s fine. I’m just looking at the run itself. Once something has shown up for several runs in a row and is within a reasonable time frame I like to start looking at the details of the system. I realize there are other players at work but under the overall conditions that this particular model is spitting out, I like this setup.
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850’s are better, low level cold is better, the low pressure is in a better place to provide copious precip. It’s a better run IMO
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I’ll take what the gfs is showing. Improved imo. Low in central Tn with some cold/CAD is usually a pretty good setup.
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So, did it show up on the Euro?
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LOL, go look at the MJO forecast now
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Tell me you see a “Chill Storm” scenario out there. Those are my favorite, snow dump and a layer of ice to seal it up.
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I’d say it’s anything from the arctic to or below us. Just my thinking. Others might weigh in with what they mean.
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There’s an obs thread. Theres a Pa forum.
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He means North American trough
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Well it’s warm, damp, and foggy today. We have all the ingredients now so why are we gonna wait until February?
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The flip in 93 was really incredible.
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I’ll take a Feb/March 93 and won’t complain one time.
