WinterWxLuvr

On average 105 people die every day in the us in auto accidents. This year at least 16,000 have died from the flu virus. In 2017, over 5,000 people died in the us from choking. We haven’t closed businesses, schools, sporting events, etc because we are afraid to drive. We haven’t quarantined ourselves in our homes because of flu. We don’t stop eating from fear of choking. You could go on and on with stats, but for the point is clear. It’s prudent to take precautions but it’s irrational to make this more than it is. Of course we live in the time of sensationalism so ....

Everclear

Might get the 70’s. I choose to remain skeptical of seeing any flakes.

Thanks but I already knew it was a screwed up place.

It would be super incredible if we get some wound up beast that pummels the whole east coast. March 13. Yeah ...

They trend south all the time

I’m all in. Gonna post it on Facebook as soon as I can.

What has happened to Md?

None of us can abandon all hope, including you. We might say we have, but we still hope. Perhaps not now, but come mid November we will be right here.

Don’t say that. PD III will.

No. That theory hasn’t failed. Yes we can get accumulating snow, and on roads. But if you think a sun angle of about 46 degrees compared to about 28 degrees doesn’t matter then you are in for an unpleasant surprise.

It’s gonna

What’s 17 degrees between friends? LOL

This is such a great setup that I don’t even know when we are talking about.

Over/under the amount of snow the gfs takes away in the 12z run? My guess is 10” from my area.

Weather Will says the eps says no. As you know, if the eps says no it isn’t possible.

Thanks for picking up the slack

I told you guys earlier in the season that the euro is only right when it shows no snow. If it shows snow you can walk away and not look back because it ain’t happening.

My winter forecast for next year is some cold, some warm, some snow, some rain, some ice, some sun. Now just stand back and marvel at my forecasting skill.

The UKMET looks like wet snow as depicted here.

Start a thread

Yes, I know this. But if you look at those maps, every single one of them “predict” (because that’s what an ensemble member is, a prediction of weather) that I will see at least 1/2” of snow (my location). That’s a 100 percent chance, or a probability of 1. Therefore, if there was a probability map that showed probability for snowfall of at least 1/2” I would be in a shaded portion of 100% chance. That would be completely ridiculous. And then that applies to any snowfall probability map, regardless of the accumulation.

If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related?

My wild guess is that those probs are simply created by dividing the number of members that show 3” of snow by the total number of members. Since each member is nothing more than a computer sim of what might happen, there is no actual probability involved the solution it presents. Therefore, there is no real probability at all. It’s just a probability built upon a collection of “possible” solutions. When you flip a coin, one of two things is definitely going to happen. With these ensemble weather predictions you have no definite result. Its a free world and we all should be able to do things that we like as long as there’s no harm to anyone else. So I’m not ragging you for posting them. I’m just saying that I don’t think they shown any actual probability.

Best news in this thread.