WinterWxLuvr

I would prefer a few sunny days at this point if anyone can make that happen.

This is always a cool time IMO. Right around Aug 5 the sun starts racing down. Once you get 45 days past solstice this happens, reverse in winter of course. There’s math involved in the explanation but to shorten it, the sun will now go down about a degree every three days where it was taking about 10. Does this until early November.

I’ve never seen anything “useful” about a three week forecast. A pattern recognition argument can be made for a forecast beyond ten days but even that is sketchy. I just can’t wrap my head around who the weather forecast a month in advance benefits. Christopher Newport on the Susan Constant? Spend the money and come up with a model that is superb at 7 days. Now that would be useful.

Yeah that seems like money well spent

I meant like at a farm coop. Maybe that’s what you meant too. But when I had mine tested they were able to tell me the exact amount of each nutrient it needed for grass growth, proper ph, etc. I was just thinking that as much rain as you had that it shouldn’t have been that hard to keep your grass green. Makes me think it needs to grow a better root system. Could be wrong but that would be my first attempt. Also do you aerify the soil each year. I always thought that I did all the right things with my grass but my first soil test showed me that my soil was highly deficient in some areas, most notably nitrogen. The puzzling thing for me about your situation was that it seemed like you got a lot of rain. But then again you say your soil drains really well. I guess you could make the big jump to a warm season grass but you’ll have a brown lawn from Oct to May.

Was thinking about your struggles to keep your grass going ... have you ever had your soil tested?

It definitely feels tropical out there. Was thinking I’m crazy but it smells tropical also.

Thanks for the replies. The line here in Winchester is pretty standard stuff.

What radar setting shows rotation?

LOL, i was thinking M is A F I for some reason

LOL, I’m afraid to ask

We will figure it all out once we’ve created 30-40 more 3 letter acronyms for weather.

New thread guys. Good luck

2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month

What I’m saying is look where the mean had it at day 10 and compare that to where it actually was. Pretty good imo. And when you say it was heading into you are basically extrapolating it out to days 20+

Your looking at that mean curve, skewed obviously by outliers. Not unexpected past day 10. Fine let’s look at its 10 day forecast.

Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great.

Would need to see before 1950 to make conclusions.

But it’s such a consistent model?

I’d say because that low is so close. Move it East by 50 miles different story

I agree. With a good pattern upstream we can get lucky even if the Atlantic is bad.

Each day it makes it closer to 8 before it starts to try and loop. Get it all the way in 8 and then loop back through 7 probably would be ok.

Yeah I agree. Get some snow cover and it can get as cold and dry as it wants

Low position keeps improving on gefs for Saturday.