WinterWxLuvr

Yes, I know this. But if you look at those maps, every single one of them “predict” (because that’s what an ensemble member is, a prediction of weather) that I will see at least 1/2” of snow (my location). That’s a 100 percent chance, or a probability of 1. Therefore, if there was a probability map that showed probability for snowfall of at least 1/2” I would be in a shaded portion of 100% chance. That would be completely ridiculous. And then that applies to any snowfall probability map, regardless of the accumulation.

If you look at those maps, there is a 100% chance that I will see at least 1/2” of snow during the period. Anybody think a 100% probability is reasonable or descriptive of anything weather related?

My wild guess is that those probs are simply created by dividing the number of members that show 3” of snow by the total number of members. Since each member is nothing more than a computer sim of what might happen, there is no actual probability involved the solution it presents. Therefore, there is no real probability at all. It’s just a probability built upon a collection of “possible” solutions. When you flip a coin, one of two things is definitely going to happen. With these ensemble weather predictions you have no definite result. Its a free world and we all should be able to do things that we like as long as there’s no harm to anyone else. So I’m not ragging you for posting them. I’m just saying that I don’t think they shown any actual probability.

Snowing out here. 2 days in a row. A+ winter

Best news in this thread.

Shocking

Wind is the worst weather. Worse than heat even.

That’s like a Mount Ranier forecast

Geez, check out this forecast https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.81115722656251&lat=43.64051131619297#.XlcRmiVOmaM

What do the probability maps show? EPS , of course

Great thread. Good call

Well, we got nothing when they did look good, so we have that going for us

Haha. Are they ever.

Are we going to mention that nobody really cares? Yes! Ok

Well, it’s certainly been a winter to remember

I say we change the name of this thread to simply Mediun/Long Range Discussion and leave it open until we get a region wide 6” snow. Even if it takes a 1000 pages

GFS looks good

I prefer Cocoa Puffs

Should I brine my driveway in preparation for Friday nights event?

How’s the half inch of powder for Friday night looking?

LOL. Deep powder

For me this winter is nothing like the period from late 1989 through Dec of 1992. It was like I lived in southern Georgia.

Exactly. And spring grass can’t survive any dry period in the summer. Has to be watered. September is by far the best grass planting month.

September is best. Now works too. Gotta get it in contact with the soil by some means.

Who needs winter? Perfect day